Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to oscillate upwards due to the influence of the black sector sentiment and the rising cost center [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - This week, alloy prices were driven up by the sentiment of the black sector. The increase in raw coal prices led to a rise in semi - coke prices, further raising the cost center of silicon ferrosilicon. However, the fundamental contradictions continue to accumulate, and attention should be paid to whether the steel mill's production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5]. - Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee had a general impact on commodity demand. Overseas, the US sent a conciliatory signal during the week, and a meeting is expected to be held next week [5]. - Microscopically, the iron - water production decreased slightly, providing weak support for raw material demand. The production restrictions of steel mills in Tangshan next week may reduce the demand for alloys [5]. 2. Futures Market - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract showed a strong - oscillating trend, closing at 5,542 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trading volume was 716,127 lots, and the open interest was 174,287 lots, a decrease of 29,225 lots from the previous week [8]. - The manganese silicon 2601 contract oscillated this week, closing at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous week. The trading volume was 856,106 lots, and the open interest was 350,893 lots, a decrease of 39,064 lots from the previous week [8]. 3. Spot Market - This week, the spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon in major regions across the country increased slightly. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,130 - 5,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 70 yuan/ton [13]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon manganese in major regions across the country was 5,500 - 5,880 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 0 - 70 yuan/ton. The price of 6517 - type silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), that in Guangxi was 5,650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week), and that in Ningxia was 5,580 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. 4. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data Supply - Manganese silicon production decreased slightly this week. The weekly production was 207,410 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 0.7%. The weekly operating rate was 43.04%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the previous week [21]. Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual iron - water production decreased. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average iron - water production was 239,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous week. The production of rebar increased by 59,100 tons this week. With production restrictions planned for some steel mills next week, the overall demand for manganese silicon is expected to weaken [26]. Inventory - As of October 24, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 44,876, a decrease of 3,064 from the previous week, equivalent to a inventory of 224,380 tons, with a warehouse - receipt destocking of 15,320 tons [31]. - In October, the average available days of silicon manganese inventory in steel mills was 15.7 days (- 0.23 days). In the northern region, it was 14.24 days (+ 0.17 days), in the eastern region, it was 17.05 days (- 0.43 days), and in the southern region, it was 17 days (- 0.91 days) [32]. - As of October 24, the inventory of 63 domestic silicon manganese sample enterprises was 293,000 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons from the previous week [36]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore shipment volume increased slightly, but the shipments from South Africa and Gabon decreased. The manganese ore supply and demand are currently relatively balanced, with high - level port clearance [49][50]. - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes are firm, and port quotes are divergent. The cost of South African semi - carbonate ore is inverted [52]. 5. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - Silicon ferrosilicon supply increased slightly this week. The weekly production was 114,100 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous week. The weekly operating rate was 35.56%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [58]. Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual iron - water production decreased. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average iron - water production was 239,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous week [72]. - The non - steel demand for silicon ferrosilicon showed positive trends. The stainless - steel production in September was 3.0661 million tons, an increase of 163,300 tons from the previous month and 7.65% higher year - on - year. The planned stainless - steel production in October is expected to be similar to that in September [72]. - The total production of magnesium metal in September was 76,800 tons, an increase of 10.5% from the previous month and 2.4% higher year - on - year [72]. - The silicon ferrosilicon export volume in September was 40,100 tons, an increase of 14.6% from the previous month [72]. Inventory - As of October 24, the inventory of 60 domestic silicon ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 66,560 tons, a decrease of 2,520 tons from the previous week [81]. - As of October 24, the number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,163, a decrease of 1,042 from the previous week, equivalent to a inventory of 55,815 tons, with a warehouse - receipt destocking of 5,210 tons [81]. - In October, the average available days of silicon ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.67 days (+ 0.15 days). In the northern region, it was 14 days (+ 0.34 days), in the eastern region, it was 16.33 days (- 0.77 days), and in the southern region, it was 18.82 days (+ 1.37 days) [81]. Cost - The price of semi - coke, a raw material for silicon ferrosilicon, increased, raising the production cost center of silicon ferrosilicon, and the profit increased with the market [85].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20251026
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-26 11:52