量化择时周报:多项情绪指标情绪转正,情绪指标间分化加剧-20251026
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-26 12:11

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has slightly increased to 2.2 as of October 24, compared to 1.9 the previous week, indicating a partial recovery in market sentiment [9][12]. - The overall market sentiment is showing increased differentiation, with a decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting reduced capital activity and a cautious risk appetite among investors [12][19]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 1,991.617 billion RMB on October 24 [19][22]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - As of October 24, 2025, industries such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, public utilities, and construction decoration have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with coal being the strongest at a score of 93.22 [40][41]. - The model indicates that the banking sector's short-term score has rapidly increased, maintaining a favorable signal for both value and large-cap styles [40][41]. - The analysis of industry crowding shows that sectors like electronics and power equipment have high returns but also high capital crowding, which may pose volatility risks [43][44]. Group 3: Technical Indicators and Market Dynamics - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a decline, indicating weak upward momentum and reduced buying interest in the market [32][35]. - The main capital inflow has improved, suggesting an increase in institutional buying power and a gradual warming of market sentiment [35][37]. - The model maintains a signal indicating that large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, although the strength of this signal may weaken in the future [52][53].