锌产业链周度报告-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export window for zinc is open, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize profits [3] - The domestic supply side of zinc faces continuous pressure, and the consumption peak season is coming to an end. This week, zinc prices rebounded significantly due to factors such as LME inventory depletion and strong external prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 22355, with a weekly increase of 2.48%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22300, with a night - session decrease of 0.25%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3019.5, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [8] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 130461, an increase of 41774 from the previous week, and the open interest was 120167, an increase of 42945 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11517, an increase of 416 from the previous week, and the open interest was 223518, a decrease of 753 from the previous week [8] - Spot - Futures Price Difference Changes: The LME zinc premium changed by 50.52, the bonded area zinc premium decreased by 45, and the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc, Guangdong 0 zinc, and Tianjin 0 zinc also changed [8] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined. Zinc ore inventory in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at high levels, while seven - region inventory and downstream raw material inventory have decreased [10][11] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a relatively low level [12][13] 3.2.3 Production - The smelting production rate has declined, and the downstream production rate is at a historically low level. The production rates of zinc concentrate, refined zinc, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide have all declined [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums are differentiated. Overseas premiums are flat this week, and LME CASH - 3M has risen to a historical high with sharp fluctuations [18][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase this week but still at a historically low level. Bonded area inventory has decreased, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][33] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [34] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees continue to decline. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [37][38] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting production has decreased but is still at a historically high level. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historically high level, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [45] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The production rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide all show certain trends [48][49][50][51] 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream production rate has increased slightly, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level. The production rates and inventory levels of downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide all show certain characteristics [54][57] - The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity all show certain trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [75][76][77]