铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of casting aluminum alloy is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end logic of casting aluminum alloy still exists, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bullish. It is advisable to look for buying points on dips [6] - The combined inventory of cast aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses has increased, and the inventory pressure remains. However, with the arrival of the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry, car sales are expected to improve month - on - month [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The weekly price of casting aluminum alloy futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a high of 20,775 yuan/ton during the week. The scrap aluminum price fluctuated strongly, and the prices of raw and processed aluminum increased simultaneously. Some enterprises faced prominent cost pressure due to low raw material inventories. The demand showed certain resilience, and leading enterprises maintained a good production rhythm [6] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2511.shf and AD2512.shf contracts on October 24, 2025, the futures price difference was 90 yuan/ton. The fixed cost was 14.48 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 65.89 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 80 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The reference price of casting aluminum alloy spot was 20,700 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was 20,916.4 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production was at a high level, and social inventory was decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum was also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.69% [16][18] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 was slightly raised, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum fluctuated. The weekly operating rate of recycled aluminum decreased, while the monthly operating rate increased. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output proportion were also provided [29][39][44] - The cost of ADC12 was mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost was above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy increased, and the social inventory was at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy was temporarily closed [45][50][55] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The fuel - powered vehicle industry entered the year - end sales rush stage, which would drive die - casting consumption. In the second week of October (October 13 - 19), domestic passenger car retail sales were 1.128 million, a 6% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in October last year and a 7% increase compared to the same period last month. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 18.136 million, a year - on - year increase of 8% [6][64]