Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Weekly Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] - Date: October 26, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Aluminum prices are showing a breakthrough trend, with the overall center of gravity trending upward. In the medium to long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and there is a certain certainty that the price will break through 21,000 this year and early next year [3]. - Alumina has temporarily formed a bottom around 2,800, but the reduction is not continuous. The short - term spot market remains weak, and the price decline has narrowed this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - Term Spreads: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from 0 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from - 105 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also weakened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 39 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 94 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [9]. - Monthly Spreads: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [10]. - Volume and Open Interest: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has increased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract has increased slightly and is at a historical high, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13]. - Open Interest to Inventory Ratio: The open interest to inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and the open interest to inventory ratio of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 2. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - Bauxite: As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly imported bauxite port inventory decreased by 971,300 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the national 43 - sample enterprise bauxite inventory increased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants increased. As of October 24, the steel - linked weekly Guinea port bauxite shipment volume increased by 1.5849 million tons compared with last week, and the Australian port shipment volume decreased by 588,300 tons. The Guinea and Australian sea - floating inventories both increased slightly. As of October 17, the bauxite outbound volume from Australian and Guinea ports increased slightly, and the SMM - caliber bauxite arrival volume increased significantly [23][28][29][34]. - Alumina: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with a week - on - week increase of 51,000 tons. The in - plant inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and yard/on - the - way inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased. As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 4.061 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons [44][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: According to the seasonal pattern, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a destocking cycle. As of October 16, the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 607,000 tons this week [52]. - Fabricated Products: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory decreased. As of September, the SMM aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil finished product inventory ratios decreased slightly, while the raw material inventory ratios increased slightly [58][61]. 3. Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - Bauxite: In September, the domestic bauxite supply was not loose and remained stable. The SMM - caliber domestic bauxite output decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In terms of provinces, the steel - linked Shanxi bauxite output increased slightly in September, while the SMM - caliber output decreased slightly. The steel - linked Henan bauxite output increased slightly, while the SMM - caliber output decreased. The steel - linked and SMM - caliber Guangxi bauxite outputs both decreased [64][67]. - Alumina: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 24, the national total operating alumina capacity was 97.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.862 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term alumina supply remains loose [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of September, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the steel - linked weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 852,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, remaining at a high level in the past six years. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the molten aluminum ratio increased seasonally, and the aluminum ingot casting volume is expected to decline month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure [74]. - Downstream Processing: This week, the recycled aluminum rod output decreased by 520 tons week - on - week. The aluminum rod plant load decreased slightly, and the aluminum rod weekly output decreased by 900 tons week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip - foil output increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 900 tons. The domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprise operating rate decreased slightly by 0.1% week - on - week. The aluminum plate - strip operating rate increased, but there are expectations of demand decline. The aluminum foil operating rate decreased, and there is a risk of weakening terminal demand. The aluminum profile operating rate increased slightly, but the photovoltaic profile was affected by the reduction of downstream component factory production. The aluminum cable operating rate increased slightly, the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat, and the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased [77][78][81][83]. 4. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Fabricated Products - Alumina: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly. The steel - linked metallurgical - grade alumina profit was 135.4 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit remained at a good level. Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan alumina profits remained stable, and Guangxi alumina had better profit performance due to relatively firm cost [85]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [97]. - Downstream Processing: The aluminum rod processing fee decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 5. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - Import Profit and Loss: The alumina and SHFE aluminum import profit and loss have narrowed [107]. - Export: In September 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 14,000 tons month - on - month. The aluminum fabricated product export profit and loss showed differentiation, and the aluminum processing product export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [109][112]. - Apparent Demand: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [116].
铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251026
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-26 12:22