量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20251024）：情绪择时判断下周市场或出现震荡-20251026

• The sentiment timing model indicates that the market trend has been broken, issuing a negative signal[1][2][6] - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.84 on Friday, lower than the previous week's 1.57, indicating that current market liquidity is 0.84 standard deviations above the average level of the past year[2][7] - The PUT-CALL ratio of the SSE 50ETF options trading volume decreased to 0.72 on Friday from the previous week's 1.07, indicating an increase in short-term optimism among investors regarding the SSE 50ETF[2][7] - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.19% and 1.66%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity compared to previous periods[2][7] - The SAR indicator shows that the Wind All A Index broke below the reversal indicator on October 17[2][11] - The moving average strength index calculated from the Wind secondary industry indices scored 197, which is at the 71.2% percentile since 2023[2][11] - The sentiment model score is 2 out of 5, the trend model signal is negative, and the weighted model signal is negative[2][11][14] - The small-cap factor congestion level increased to 0.41, the low-valuation factor congestion level was -0.26, the high-profitability factor congestion level was -0.15, and the high-growth factor congestion level was 0.35[4][15][16][18]