聚酯数据周报-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound, PXN compression. Demand improvement and cost support lead to a short - term rebound in PX unilateral price, and PXN should be shorted on rallies [3]. - PTA: Enter a positive feedback pattern in the short term, and the unilateral trend is regarded as strong [4]. - MEG: There is a short - term rebound, with positive spreads for month - to - month and basis, and short positions below 4000 should be reduced [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PX Valuation - Domestic PX price rebounded significantly last week, and the forward curve of Zhengshang PX futures shifted downward overall. Overseas PX turned to B structure, and overseas aromatics valuation was supported by strong overseas oil cracking spreads. Attention should be paid to the aromatics blending demand in Asia in the fourth quarter [18][23][29][40]. - PX - MX spread remained around 100 US dollars/ton, and Asian MX blending for oil warmed up [44]. Supply and Demand - Domestic PX operating rate was at a historical high. In September, PX domestic output was 3220000 tons, and this week's operating rate was 85.9% (+1%). The apparent consumption in September was 4040000 tons, and the loss in September was 377000 tons. Next week, Fujia Dahua's 1.4 million - ton plant will gradually restart [50][51][52][56]. - In September, PX imports were expected to be 850000 tons. China's imports from South Korea were 330000 tons in September, and imports from Saudi Arabia remained low. The operating rate of Asian PX plants this week was 78.5% (+0.5%) [58][60][62]. Inventory - In September, Longzhong's monthly PX inventory decreased to 3.92 million tons (+3) [73]. PTA Valuation - The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread anti - arbitrage should be exited. Attention should be paid to the unplanned production cuts of PTA under low processing fees. PTA spot processing fees fell to 80 yuan/ton [79][82][83]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate remained around 78.8%. In September, PTA production was 6.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. In September, PTA exports were 340000 tons, a month - on - month increase. PTA inventory was at a low level [88][91][106]. Position - The short positions of Morgan Qiankun in PTA decreased, and the short positions of foreign capital seats increased to 202000 lots (-13000) this week [110][112]. MEG Valuation - The price rebounded from the bottom this week, and the basis recovered. The valuation of MEG relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics all rebounded to the highest level this year. Coal - based plant profits were - 2 yuan/ton (-50), and oil - based plants continued to be in a loss pattern [120][125][128]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate reached a new high this year. The MEG plant load was 73.3% (-3.9%), and the coal - based operating rate was 82.2% (+0.3%). In September, imports were 620000 tons. Overseas, multiple sets of plants were shut down for maintenance, and the European arbitrage window was gradually closing. Port inventory increased marginally [131][133][134][137][142]. Polyester Supply and Demand - The polyester load remained at 91.4% (-%). Due to the cold air moving south and the continuous improvement of Double Eleven orders, the downstream loom order index rebounded, and the finished fabric inventory continued to decline. The market expected the polyester load to be 91.5% in October, 91% in November, and 90% in December. Polyester production increased by 7% year - on - year [148][152]. Inventory - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the inventory pressure of filament yarn was relieved [155].