聚烯烃：短期止跌，中期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - Supply: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - Demand: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - Viewpoint: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - Valuation: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - Viewpoint: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - Valuation: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - Capacity Utilization: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - Maintenance Situation: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - Inventory: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - Cost: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - Profit: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - Downstream Industry: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - Price Difference: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - Start - up and Production: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - Maintenance: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - New Capacity: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - Inventory: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - Cost: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - Profit: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - Downstream Industry: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].