美豆周度报告-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support makes a significant decline unlikely. The market is expected to be generally oscillating with an upward bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include the return of the rainy season in Brazil, improved precipitation, accelerated sowing progress, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors are the possible intensification of the biodiesel policy to support prices, the possible agreement on purchasing US agricultural products after the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders, and the possible reduction in South American soybean production due to La Nina weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans oscillated and closed higher. The market is optimistic about the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during APEC next week, and the return of the rainy season in Brazil is expected to speed up the planting progress. Next week's focus points are the follow - up progress of Sino - US relations, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal oscillated and rose. The market is optimistic about the meeting between Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting in South Korea next week, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy, which weakens the oil market and provides additional support for soybean meal [12]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil oscillated and declined. The possible delay of Indonesia's biodiesel B50 addition policy has raised concerns about the oil consumption outlook, putting pressure on the global oil market [14]. - Since September 19, the USDA has suspended data updates [16][18][20]. - On October 24, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly increased to 119.35 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports increased to 138.66 reais per bag [22][24]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained unchanged, with a drought rate of 68%, the same as last week [27]. - The temperature in US producing areas will be warmer in the next two weeks, and precipitation in the Great Lakes region will be less, which is conducive to the completion of the harvest [29][31]. - In Brazil, the central - northern region has less precipitation, while the southeastern region has more precipitation. In Argentina, the precipitation in soybean - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing work is about to start [33][35]. - As of the week ending September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 62%, up from 61% last week but down from 64% in the same period last year [37]. Demand Factors - As of October 17, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, down from 2.72 dollars last week [41]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week. The net sales volume for next year was 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [44][46][48]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.095, indicating the entry into the La Nina range [55]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [57][59]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].