美国9月CPI点评：通胀低于预期，后续“两降”信号渐明

Inflation Overview - In September, the overall CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI also rose by 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] Market Reaction - The September inflation data was below market expectations of 3.1%, indicating a slight easing of inflation concerns[4] - The data suggests that inflation risks are manageable, providing a signal for potential interest rate cuts later in the year[18] Sector Contributions - Food prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.2% in August, contributing 0.42% to the overall CPI[11] - Energy prices saw a significant year-on-year increase of 2.9%, compared to just 0.4% in August, contributing 0.19% to the CPI[11] Core Inflation Insights - Core services showed a notable slowdown, contributing 2.12% to the CPI, down from 2.18% in the previous month[11] - The core CPI remains stable at 3.0%, indicating that while inflation is present, it is not accelerating significantly[4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider two interest rate cuts within the year, supported by the current inflation data[18] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of rate cuts in October and December, reflecting a shift in focus from controlling inflation to stabilizing employment[18]