KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-26 12:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement compared to the previous quarter, highlighting the resilience of its integrated operations [1] - The company is expected to maintain continuous positive growth in the second half of the year, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [1] - The company plans to acquire assets from its controlling shareholder, which will enhance its integrated operations and competitive edge [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 213.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 39.05 billion, down 10.0% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was CNY 38.70 billion, down 15.9% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of CNY 75.04 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1% but an increase of 9.5% compared to the previous quarter [1] Coal and Power Business Insights - The coal business showed stabilization in volume and price, with a total coal production of 250.9 million tons for the first three quarters, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was CNY 487 per ton, down 13.7% year-on-year, while the unit production cost for self-produced coal decreased by 7.5% to CNY 173.2 per ton [2] - The power segment experienced a decline in sales volume but improved profitability, with a gross profit of CNY 12.50 billion, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [2] Strategic Developments - The company plans to purchase equity stakes in 13 companies from its controlling shareholder, which will address competition issues and strengthen its integrated operations [3] - Key projects are being accelerated, with significant production capacity expected to come online by 2028 and 2029 [3] - The company has committed to a minimum cash dividend payout ratio of 65% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting its focus on shareholder returns [3] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is CNY 52.00 billion, CNY 54.56 billion, and CNY 56.03 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 2.62, CNY 2.75, and CNY 2.82 [4] - The company's P/E ratios for the same period are expected to be 16.2, 15.5, and 15.1 times [4]