Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]
化工周报：原油带动聚酯产业链反弹，关注中美博弈-20251026
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-26 12:26