能源化工甲醇周度报告-20251026

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Weekly Report - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Huang Tianyuan, Yang Honghan Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and its medium - term price center will decline. It is under fundamental pressure but has a neutral - to - low valuation. With many important macro events recently, the short - term price will oscillate, while the high supply and port inventory pressure will suppress the upside [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral price center will move down; for the 01 contract, the upper pressure is at 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the lower support is at 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is high, and the spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Methanol Summary - Supply: China's methanol production decreased this week (20251017 - 1023) to 1,943,465 tons, a decrease of 39,690 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 85.65%, a 2.00% decline. Next period, the overall supply may increase as planned maintenance and production - cut devices decrease while recovery devices increase. Olefin enterprises'开工 continued to decrease due to cost pressure and downstream price drops. For traditional downstream industries, the capacity utilization of dimethyl ether may increase, that of glacial acetic acid may decline slightly, formaldehyde will likely maintain the current level, and the change in chloride capacity utilization will be small [4]. - Demand: As of October 22, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 360,400 tons, a 0.13% increase from the previous period, and the sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 215,700 tons, a 5.79% decrease [4]. - Inventory: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous data. The East China region accumulated inventory (an increase of 30,000 tons), while the South China region reduced inventory (a decrease of 9,200 tons) [4]. 2. Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of methanol's basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16]. 3. Supply - New Capacity: From 2024 - 2025, there were many new methanol plants in China. In 2024, the total new capacity expansion was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it was 8.3 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it was expected to be 3.3 million tons [23]. - Maintenance: There are many domestic methanol device maintenance cases, with a total affected capacity of 6.9 million tons, and the actual total loss was 1,716,220 tons [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: Charts display the trends of methanol production and capacity utilization in China and different regions, as well as production by different processes from 2018 - 2025 [27][29]. - Import - related: Charts show the trends of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [37]. - Cost and Profit: Charts present the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [42][47]. 4. Demand - Downstream Capacity Utilization: Charts show the capacity utilization trends of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and other downstream industries in China from 2020 - 2025 [52]. - Downstream Profits: Charts display the profit trends of methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, and other downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [59][63]. - Procurement Volume: Charts show the procurement volume trends of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [67][72]. - Raw Material Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of methanol raw materials in traditional downstream industries in China and different regions from 2020 - 2025 [77]. 5. Inventory - Factory Inventory: Charts show the trends of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [82]. - Port Inventory: Charts display the trends of methanol port inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [88].