能源化工合成橡胶周度报告-20251026

Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0021541 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate within the fundamental valuation range. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber face pressure, mainly from high supply, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, increasing inventory pressure in the industry chain. However, the valuation is moderately low, and with many important macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate. [2][4] - The fundamentals of butadiene are gradually under increasing pressure, with high - supply pressure expected to persist in the medium - term, leading to a weak trend. [5] Summary by Directory This Week's Cis - Butadiene Rubber Viewpoints Supply - This week, the impact of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants became apparent, and the load of some private plants decreased slightly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from last week, a 1.84% MoM decline, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, a 1.37 - percentage - point MoM decrease. Next week, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to shut down for maintenance, and the specific implementation time of Sichuan Petrochemical is to be determined. There are also maintenance expectations for Zhenhua New Materials, Maoming's cis - butadiene rubber plant, and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth cis - butadiene rubber plant from November to December, so the short - term supply of some spot resources is expected to remain tight. [4] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly this week. Snowfall in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia was earlier than usual, leading to concentrated demand for winter tires. Semi - steel tire enterprises actively arranged production, driving up the capacity utilization rate. The production of all - steel tire enterprises returned to normal levels this week, also driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain stable production, and all - steel tire enterprises will keep production stable overall. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, so the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous period, a 1.25% MoM increase. This week, the spot market was driven by the expectation of a cooling of trade frictions and the strengthening of natural rubber. While the mainstream supply price rebounded, low - price transactions improved. However, due to more maintenance of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants recently, some sample production enterprises stocked up, resulting in a continuous increase in the inventory level of sample production enterprises and a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises. [4] Valuation - Currently, the static fundamental valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,400 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline due to the increase in butadiene arrivals. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton on the futures market. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the Shandong market price, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot and shorting futures, which will increase the pressure on the upper - limit space of the futures market. The lower valuation limit is expected to be supported by butadiene from the cost side, with the theoretical lower - limit valuation range of the futures market at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. The overall static valuation of cis - butadiene rubber is currently moderately low. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Implement a range strategy based on the static fundamental valuation. The upper pressure is at 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of cis - butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support is at 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton (the cost of cis - butadiene rubber anchored by butadiene). - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient driving forces, it is expected to fluctuate. [4] This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints Supply - This week (October 17 - 23, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 101,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period, a 0.25% MoM decrease. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 106,000 tons, an increase from this week. Although Sichuan Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance on the 25th, the output of enterprises in the Northeast and Shandong will gradually return to normal, increasing the overall output. [5] Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of cis - butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene with little change. [5] Inventory - This week (October 16 - 22, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, a 9.29% MoM decrease. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.83% MoM. There were plant changes during the period, and some downstream plants in East China shut down for maintenance, causing slight fluctuations in butadiene inventory. The inventory at sample ports decreased significantly by 20.13% MoM. The arrival of ships was limited this week, and the tradable volume was low, resulting in a phased reduction in inventory. However, merchants expect sufficient imports in October, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored. [5] Viewpoint - In the short - term, both supply and demand are increasing, and the inventory is neutral, so butadiene is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, leading to a weak trend. [5] Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end. [8] - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the expansion speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. [10] - The operating rate, production capacity changes, and import - export volume of butadiene are presented through historical data charts and tables, showing the development trend of the butadiene market. [14][16] Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is presented through historical data charts, reflecting the output changes in recent years. [40] - Cost and Profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber in China are presented through historical data charts, showing the cost - profit situation. [42][43][44] - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the import - export trends. [45][46] - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are presented through historical data charts, showing the inventory situation. [49][50][51] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - Tire: The inventory and operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented through historical data charts, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry. [53][54]