FICC周报：“十五五”主要目标发布，宏观氛围偏乐观-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]