南华期货烧碱产业周报：补库不及预期-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current non - aluminum spot market has no obvious replenishment behavior, falling short of expectations, and may wait for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. As maintenance resumes, spot support may weaken. The rising price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [2]. - High profits limit the price ceiling. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continued production capacity pressure. The implementation degree and time of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased replenishment rhythm [4]. - The pattern of high profits and high production restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall, the contradictions are limited, but the near - term demand and replenishment rhythm are below expectations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of [2300, 2600] [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The overall spot market is weak, non - aluminum replenishment is below expectations, the chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent rise in liquid chlorine weakens cost support [3]. - Long - term trading expectations: High profits limit price increases, there is continued production capacity pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and the implementation of downstream alumina production capacity may affect the phased replenishment rhythm [4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly. Range trading within [2300, 2600] is recommended [7]. - Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations: Current short - only positions are advised to exit or wait for signs of the spot price bottoming out [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, shorting caustic soda futures to lock in profits and selling call options to collect premiums are recommended. The recommended hedging ratio is 50%, and the entry range is 2600 - 2650 [11]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase according to orders, buying caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and selling put options to collect premiums are recommended. The recommended hedging ratio is 50%, and the entry range is 2300 - 2350 [11]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Price data shows that on October 24, 2025, the prices of different types and regions of caustic soda had various changes, such as a - 2.9% drop in Shandong flake caustic soda price compared to the previous day [13]. - The price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600, with a current volatility of 25.50% and a historical percentile of 65.5% over three years [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Maintenance continued in October, providing short - term support for the spot market. The price - holding strength of alkali plants needs to be observed [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - There is no information about next week's important events in the provided content. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week. The absolute price has reached a relatively low level this year, mainly due to weak market sentiment and reality, and the non - aluminum downstream's phased replenishment was below expectations [17]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure - The non - aluminum end has not shown concentrated replenishment. The continuous rise in liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Attention should be paid to the continued upward movement of liquid chlorine, the replenishment signs of the non - aluminum end in the middle and downstream, and the continuation of inventory accumulation [19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, leading to a month - on - month increase in chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton (+200 yuan), and in Jiangsu is 100 yuan/ton (+50 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 600 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [30]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 5 US dollars to around 455 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [40]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - The report provides seasonal price data for different types (32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda) and regions of caustic soda, as well as price difference data between different brands and regions [43][51][54]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - Caustic soda loss volume: Data on weekly and monthly device loss volume is provided [100]. - Liquid caustic soda production and operation: Data on weekly and monthly total production, operation rate, and regional production are provided [102]. - Flake caustic soda production and operation: Data on weekly total production, operation rate, and regional production are provided [111]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - The report provides data on the spot price, operation rate, and import and export volume of downstream products such as alumina, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [118]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Data on the weekly factory inventory of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in different regions are provided [132].