氯碱周报：下游氧化铝调低接货价，新增氧化铝烧碱招标进行中-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, the spot price is mainly stable. The supply side has a slight decline in the operating rate due to new production capacity and a mix of maintenance and increased production. The demand side shows a decrease in the receiving price of alumina, and the inventory is at a similar level to last week. The procurement of new alumina plants may support the price in the next two months, and the cost support still exists [1][2]. - For PVC, it rebounds with the macro - sentiment. The supply side is abundant with new production capacity coming on stream, and the demand side has a general purchasing sentiment after a pick - up in downstream operating rates. The inventory is still at a relatively high level. The export has some resilience, but the export of PVC products may be affected by Indian anti - dumping investigations. Attention should be paid to relevant policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 24, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda futures closed at 2373 yuan/ton (-12). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% was 1280 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 190 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 24, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures closed at 4708 yuan/ton (-22). The spot price of PVC in East China's calcium carbide method was 4630 yuan/ton (-10), and in South China's calcium carbide method was 4710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China was - 78 yuan/ton (+12), and in South China was 2 yuan/ton (+22) [4]. III. Cost - Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 1068.28 yuan/ton (+40.00), and (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 206.28 yuan/ton (-10.00). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1135.25 yuan/ton (-56.00). The single - variety production profit of PVC in the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton (-9.54), and in the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton (-7.70) [2][5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - As of October 24, 2025, the operating rate of caustic soda was 80.80% (-0.60%), and the weekly output was 79.54 tons (-0.70). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production this week [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 250 yuan/ton (+50). The operating rate of propylene oxide downstream of liquid chlorine was 67.82% (+0.26%), that of epichlorohydrin was 50.28% (-3.01%), and the weekly output of chloroform was 2.70 tons (-0.43) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - As of October 24, 2025, the average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 66.01% (+1.69%), the operating rate of PVC was 76.57% (-0.12%), that of the calcium carbide method was 74.38% (-0.33%), and that of the ethylene method was 81.64% (+0.38). The loss due to shutdown and maintenance was 14.28 tons (+0.07). New production capacities are gradually reaching full production [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the operating rate of the main downstream alumina was 86.27% (+0.05%), the weekly output was 186.20 tons (+0.10), and the port inventory was 10.80 tons (+1.60). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 67.31% (+0.55%), that of viscose staple fiber was 88.61% (+0.00%), that of white cardboard was 79.65% (+3.32%), and that of hardwood pulp was 84.90% (-0.90) [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 49.86% (+1.27%), among which the operating rate of PVC pipes was 41.20% (+1.20), that of profiles was 35.87% (+2.61), and that of films was 72.50% (+0.00). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.54 tons (+7.99). In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - As of October 24, 2025, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in domestic factories was 41.43 tons (+1.10), and that of flake caustic soda was 2.45 tons (+0.00). The inventory of PVC in factories was 33.38 tons (-2.65), and the social inventory was 55.47 tons (-0.15), among which the social inventory in East China was 50.52 tons (+0.04), and in South China was 4.95 tons (-0.19) [2][5].