油脂周报：行情缺乏明显驱动，棕榈油领跌油脂-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oil and fat futures and spot prices showed a downward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics. Palm oil may face inventory build - up pressure, but will maintain high - level fluctuations; soybean oil has sufficient supply but export relieves pressure; and rapeseed oil supply is expected to tighten [1][6][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9,122 yuan/ton, down 186 yuan or 2.0% from the previous week; soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,194 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan or 0.75%; rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,761 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.01%. - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,050 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.52%; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.18%; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.69% [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. Domestically, 4 new purchase ships and 1 cancelled ship were added from October 17 - 23, all with November shipment dates. - Demand: Terminal replenished goods intensively this week, with the national key oil mills' palm oil trading volume increasing by 84.18% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 tons, up 5.13% from last week and 11.59% from last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.17%. From January - September, the cumulative import was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 43rd week was 2.3674 million tons, and the expected crushing volume in the 44th week was 2.3392 million tons. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased by 28.98% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 tons, down 3.25% from last week but up 8.32% from last year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume was 12,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed inventory was low, and only a few enterprises were operating. The import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December, and the production of rapeseed oil is expected to shrink sharply. - Demand: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 12,900 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous period, and it is expected to decline slightly next week. - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week [4][5] Market Analysis - This week, the three major oil and fat futures showed a weak and volatile trend. Palm oil was the weakest due to over - expected production growth, slow export growth, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 policy; rapeseed oil had no obvious driving force in the short - term; soybean oil was relatively firm due to its low price and export orders. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil slightly recovered [6] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean harvest rate is 73%, but the sales progress is slow. Brazil's soybean planting rate is lower than the five - year average, but the expected output is high. China's soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase. Exports relieve some supply pressure, and the future depends on Sino - U.S. negotiations. - Palm oil: Indonesia's B50 policy may be delayed. Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly in October, and India's future import speed may slow down. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the inventory is expected to increase. However, due to the approaching production - reduction season and the promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel, palm oil will maintain high - level fluctuations. - Rapeseed oil: Canada's rapeseed harvest is almost over, but its exports are sluggish. China's import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December. Rapeseed oil will fluctuate between tight supply of raw materials and slow inventory reduction [7][8][9][10]