新能源及有色金属周报：会议提振国内终端需求展望，但当前高铜价抑制下游消费-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short Put [7] Core Views - The current high copper price is suppressing downstream consumption, and the short - term demand is difficult to improve, with the spot premium continuing in a low - level shock [1][2] - The rise in copper prices is mainly due to Trump's relatively mild stance on trade disputes and positive expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [7] - The consumption of refined copper rods and copper cables shows a "not prosperous in peak season" feature, and it is expected that the overall consumption will remain sluggish next week [5][6] Key Points from Each Section Market News and Important Data - From October 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper ranged from 84,955 yuan/ton to 86,420 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with a downward oscillation [1] - LME inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 13.64 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 10.48 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 18.16 million tons, and bonded area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons. Comex inventory rose by 0.24 million tons to 34.8 million tons [1] Macro - economic Situation - In the week of October 25, 2025, the unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in September was 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%, with a slight inflation rebound. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in the October FOMC meeting was still as high as 98.3% [2] - The preliminary US manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8, all better than expected and higher than in September [2] - Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee boosted market expectations for future policies and infrastructure demand [2] Mining and Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 25, 2025, the spot market trading was light. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing willingness, and the processing fee weakened [2] - Angola's Tetelo Copper Mine is about to be put into production, with an annual capacity of about 25,000 tons. Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for Europe to a new high of $345/ton in 2026 [2] - China's copper concentrate imports in September decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to refinery maintenance in Zambia, unfavorable price ratios, and logistics and power constraints in Africa [2] Smelting and Import - In the week of October 25, 2025, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The weekly average prices of bills of lading and warehouse receipts were $51.2/ton and $36.8/ton respectively, down $0.6 and $7.4 respectively from the previous week [3] - The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price dropped to $7.8/ton, and some transactions were at a discount. The current import loss is about 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - PPC has negotiated to postpone the shipment of some November long - term orders. The bonded inventory decreased to 9.28 million tons this week, and it is expected to rise slightly in the future [3] Scrap Copper - The copper price oscillated upward, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The price of Guangdong bright copper rose to 77,800 - 78,000 yuan/ton [4] - The sales sentiment index of recycled copper raw material holders rose to 2.36, and the purchasing sentiment of recycled copper rod enterprises also slightly increased to 2.43 [4] - The average weekly refined - scrap price difference was 3,343 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. The imported recycled copper raw material in September was 184,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that the refined - scrap price difference will further widen to 3,500 yuan/ton [4] Consumption - In the week of October 25, 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a slight decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the previous week. The consumption of cables and enameled wires was mainly for rigid demand [5] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises slightly increased to 62.34%, but new orders generally slowed down. It is expected that the operating rate of copper cables will slightly drop to 61.89% next week, and overall consumption will be hard to improve [5][6] Strategy - For copper, the operation next week can be mainly based on buying hedges on dips in the range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. If the copper price breaks through the previous high, enterprises with selling - hedge needs can appropriately conduct selling - hedge operations [7] - Arbitrage operations are suspended, and the option strategy is short put [7]