Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tone of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee boosts market confidence. Attention should be paid to the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the subsequent Sino-US trade negotiation. The market risk appetite has recovered. Coking coal, as one of the leading varieties since the anti-involution, is still an important variety favored by long-term funds. Overall, the regional production restrictions on the supply side of coking coal limit the release of coal mine production. Coking plants have a strong demand for replenishing coking coal inventory, which supports the rebound of coking coal prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability may be restricted by the poor terminal demand [4]. - For the coking coal 2601 contract, short-term long positions are recommended, with a reference support level of 1180 - 1200 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Coking coal: Last week, the production of coking coal decreased slightly on a week-on-week basis. The supply was relatively stable, but the regional supply decreased. In Wuhai, environmental protection measures were tightened again. Three goaf treatment projects and some open-pit coal mines in Wuda suspended production again, and the resumption time was uncertain [4]. - Coke: The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises decreased slightly. On October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.16%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.83%. The daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 64.61 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.68 tons [4]. Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.05 tons to 239.9 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the pig iron output continued to decline. The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was -41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the pig iron output remained at a high level, supporting the demand for raw materials, and some downstream procurement plans were expected to increase, due to poor profits, there was strong resistance to some high-priced coking coal varieties [4]. Inventory - Coking coal: Last week, the inventory of coal mines decreased on a week-on-week basis. On October 24, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 443.13 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 18.28 tons. The coking coal inventory of downstream independent coking enterprises increased, with an increase of 32.33 tons to 1029.7 tons on a week-on-week basis, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills decreased slightly [4]. - Coke: Coke inventory accumulated in the upstream and midstream. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of downstream steel mills decreased on a week-on-week basis [4]. 期现市场 - The report presents the price trends of coking coal and coke futures contracts (jm2601, jm2605, j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5, and the spot prices of coking coal (port Mongolian No. 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium-sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (Lvliang quasi-first-grade, Rizhao quasi-first-grade, etc.) through multiple charts [9][13][19][26]. Inventory - Coking coal: The inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all-sample independent coking enterprises are presented through charts [32][37]. - Coke: The inventory trends of all-sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all-sample coke are presented through charts [39][45]. Supply Side - Coking coal import: The import volume trends of coking coal from the world, Mongolia, Australia, and Russia to China are presented through charts [48]. - Coking coal production: On October 10, the coking coal operating rate of 523 sample mines was 81.89%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.61%. The daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 183.86 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10.27 tons [54][55]. - Coking production: On October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 73.16%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.83%. The daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 64.61 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.68 tons [56]. - Steel mill coke production: The current capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke is 85.03%, a week-on-week increase of 0.31%. The daily average output is 46.11 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 tons [59]. Demand Side - Pig iron and operating rate: As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.05 tons to 239.9 tons on a week-on-week basis, and the pig iron output continued to decline [63]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The production and consumption trends of rebar and hot-rolled coil are presented through charts [64][66]. - Long-process and short-process: The production trends of long-process and short-process rebar are presented through charts [73]. - Steel mill and coke profit per ton: As of October 24, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was -41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week [77].
煤焦周报：供应端区域性限产，焦煤震荡反弹-20251026
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-10-26 13:03