油脂周报：10月前20日马棕大幅增产，油脂短期或震荡偏弱-20251026

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Significant Increase in Malaysian Palm Oil Production in the First 20 Days of October, Oils and Fats May Oscillate Weakly in the Short Term" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of expected continued inventory accumulation at the origin and the postponement of the US biodiesel policy announcement, it is expected that oils and fats will mainly oscillate weakly in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - Soybean Oil: As of October 18, Brazil had completed 21.7% of soybean sowing, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year. Favorable rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is beneficial for sowing. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress at the end of this month [3] - Palm Oil: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month - on - month, while export growth decreased. It is expected to continue inventory accumulation in October, which is different from the previous expectation of inventory reduction starting in October, being negative for palm oil. After the Diwali festival in October, India's import demand for oils decreased, leading to a worse export outlook. Some Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, and the subsequent impact of this measure needs attention [3] - Rapeseed Oil: There are expectations of negotiations between China and Canada, which is negative for rapeseed oil. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship is still uncertain, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and rapeseed oil from other regions. Additionally, the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies should be monitored [3] Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - Unilateral: The pressure level for palm oil 01 is recommended to refer to 9200 - 9400, and for soybean oil 01, it is 8300 - 8400. For options, it is advisable to buy put options on palm oil at low volatility [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see for now [5] - Outlook: Key points to watch include national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [5] Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, palm oil prices dropped significantly due to a substantial increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October [14] - The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all oscillated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17] Supply Side - Malaysian Palm Oil Monthly Data: In September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. Production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. Exports increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. Apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. This report is negative for the market [30] - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil: Data on China's imported soybean port inventory, soybean oil import volume, soybean import volume, and imported soybean crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [33][34][36] - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: Data on China's imported rapeseed port inventory, rapeseed oil import volume, rapeseed import volume, and imported rapeseed crushing volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][44][46] - Domestic Palm Oil: Data on China's palm oil import volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [50] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and the total trading volume of the three major oils are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56][58][60] Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons (3.25%) from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons (8.32%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons (5.13%) from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons (11.59%) compared to the same period last year [64] - As of October 17, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed oil inventory was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week, and the unexecuted contracts were 30,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week [67] Disk Import Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the November shipment was - 236 yuan/ton [71]