华联期货橡胶周报：有望反弹-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to rebound. The supply - side valuation is low, and the import growth rate has slowed down. Although there are issues such as over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales and the weakness of the real estate market, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. With a relatively low current valuation and the inflection point of inflation and production capacity cycle raising the lower limit, combined with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The operating range of RU is expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real estate market continues to decline and is yet to stabilize. Industrial added - value and social retail data are marginally weakening. Domestically, there is an anti - involution trend. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, which is beneficial for the capital side, but the spill - over effect of a potential US recession should be guarded against [5]. Supply - The long - term cycle shift enhances the valuation, but the supply elasticity is large. The phenological conditions in natural rubber producing areas this year are better than last year. The weak price difference between glue and cup - lump implies that supply is not a major problem. The weather is expected to be good, and the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable. There is a strong expectation of increased supply in October. However, currently, raw materials are relatively firm, the processing sector is in the red, and the basis is the strongest in the past five years. The global output is expected to increase by 0.5% this year, and China's import volume is expected to increase by about 10%. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is also relatively low compared to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber [5]. Inventory - Exchange RU warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and NR warehouse receipts were once at an extreme low. The de - stocking speed of Qingdao dry rubber inventory is slow, but the latest period shows accelerated de - stocking. Synthetic rubber inventory is at a neutral level. The inventory of all - steel tires in downstream factories is lower than in previous years, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level but is considered neutral considering the expansion of the market scale [5]. Demand - Export rush and replacement of old products have over - drafted demand. There is no expectation of improvement in the real estate market. The large - scale infrastructure project has begun, which is beneficial for the long - term demand of heavy - trucks. Heavy - truck sales have accelerated improvement under the stimulation of replacement policies and environmental protection policies. In September, the year - on - year increase exceeded 80%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks increased by about 22% year - on - year. The performance of construction machinery is mediocre. Passenger car sales remain at a historical high but show a downward trend. The operating rate of all - steel tires has improved compared to last year, and the inventory has decreased; the operating rate of semi - steel tires has marginally decreased, and the inventory has remained flat [5]. Strategy - Pay attention to the supply increase during the peak season as the supply - side valuation is low and the import growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the weakness of the real estate market is the main line of demand. Although there is over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. It is recommended to buy at low levels, with the RU operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5].