供需弱稳，估值驱动走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-side crude oil is short-term bullish, and TA valuation drivers are mostly positive. Supply and demand are generally weak and stable, and the technical aspect rebounds from oversold conditions following crude oil [5]. - In terms of operations, reduce and then hold a small amount of previous short positions. The resistance level for the 2601 contract is around 4550 - 4650 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Last week, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.98%, a 0.42 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.83 percentage point decrease year-on-year, at a neutral level compared to the same period. During the week, the increase in production at Yisheng New Materials was higher than the decrease at Yisheng Ningbo. Newly commissioned production capacity this year is 5.7 million tons. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of 3 million tons by Xin Fengming in the fourth quarter [5][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 140,560 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week and a 0.96% increase year-on-year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 18,300 tons, a 34.31% increase year-on-year. As domestic self-sufficiency gradually improves, imports are low and can be basically ignored [24]. 3.2 Demand - In September 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 5.9116 million tons, a 0.58% decrease from the previous month and a 7.25% increase year-on-year. Last week, the polyester operating rate was 87.53%, a 0.25 percentage point decrease from the previous week and a 0.94 percentage point decrease year-on-year, generally at a neutral level compared to the same period [26]. - Last week, the polyester industry's output was 1.5497 million tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week and a 4.13% increase year-on-year. As of October 23, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.45%, a 2.39 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 2.27 percentage point decrease year-on-year. According to Longzhong, the terminal performance is mediocre, downstream purchases are mostly for rigid demand, and the sales performance of polyester filament factories is average [5][29]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PTA export volume was 2.8739 million tons, a 16.07% decrease year-on-year. From January to September, the cumulative textile export value was $220 million, a 0.45% decrease year-on-year [47]. 3.3 Inventory - According to Longzhong statistics, last week, the PTA industry inventory was approximately 3.1413 million tons, a 1.58% decrease from the previous week. The PTA factory inventory was 4.07 days, a 0.01-day decrease from the previous week and a 0.31-day decrease year-on-year. The polyester product line also saw inventory reduction [5][51]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 6.95 days, a 0.4-day decrease from the previous week and a 1.4-day decrease year-on-year [52]. 3.4 Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened slightly week-on-week and was slightly higher year-on-year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable week-on-week and was higher year-on-year. The overall futures inter-month spread showed a slightly contango structure with near-term prices lower and far-term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable week-on-week and was weak year-on-year. The basis weakened slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [16]. 3.5 Valuation - PX prices rebounded, and PTA processing fees also rebounded. The PTA spot processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was the weakest in recent years compared to the same period. The futures contract processing fee decreased slightly week-on-week and was low year-on-year [64][71][75]. - The profits of PTA downstream products showed different trends, with some products' production margins fluctuating [72][76][81].