华联期货股指周报：大盘震荡消化或接近尾声-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market's shock digestion may be nearing its end. With the positive factors such as policy support and incremental funds, the mid - term outlook for stock index is bullish. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, set stop - profits, and add positions opportunistically. Also, buy put options to protect long positions [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - Market Performance: Last week, the broader market oscillated upwards to a new high, with all four major indices rising. Among the style indices, the growth style index had the largest increase, followed by the cyclical and financial indices. In the Shenwan industries, most sectors rose, with TMT sectors such as communication, electronics, electrical equipment, machinery, and media leading the gains, with the former's increase exceeding 11%. Only agriculture and food and beverage sectors closed down [4][16][19] - Economic Data: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The economy showed a recovery trend but was still in the contraction phase. In terms of sub - items, both supply and demand of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover slightly in September, with production rising by 1.1% and new orders rising by 0.2%. However, raw material and finished product prices fell again after a sharp rise last month, down 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling for 28 consecutive months to 6.30% as of September 2025 [4][28] - Policy: The Political Bureau set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and reduced interest rates on existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to enhance market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [4] - Performance: A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter. After the implementation of the reciprocal relationship with the US in April, which increased by 30%, the performance declined in the second quarter. After the rush to export in the second and third quarters, A - share performance is still under test. In the second quarter of 2025, the performance of the IH index slightly rebounded, while the performance of the other three major indices declined [4][58] - Valuation: The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.9474, with an upper - bound value of 15.58, at the 91.92 percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation. The ChiNext valuation is relatively low [5][70] 3.2 Capital Flow - Margin Trading: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan. As of October 23, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 634.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 6.2 billion yuan in the previous five trading days [6][73] - Private Funds: The total scale of private funds increased by 718.2 billion yuan this year, with an increase of 325.4 billion yuan in July and 47 billion yuan in August. The newly registered scale this year was 306.2 billion yuan, with a registration scale of 79.2 billion yuan in July and 42.8 billion yuan in August [6][75] - Insurance Funds: In the second quarter of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks and funds held by insurance funds increased by 251.3 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.28%. In the first half of 2025, the market value increased by 641.9 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.03% [6][76] - ETF: From April 7 to October 24, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 97.9 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale decreased by 30.7 billion yuan. As of October 24, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 900 million yuan [6][81] - Newly Established Funds: As of September 30, 2025, the share of newly established stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in the third quarter; the share of newly established hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in the third quarter [6][84] 3.3 Index and Industry Trends Review - Index Performance: Last week, all four major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased by 2.88%, 2.63%, 3.24%, 3.46%, and 3.25% respectively. Among international indices, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Hang Seng Tech increased by 2.20%, 2.31%, 3.61%, 3.62%, and 5.20% respectively [11][15] - Industry Performance: Most Shenwan industry sectors rose, with TMT sectors leading the gains, and only agriculture and food and beverage sectors closing down. Among the style indices, the growth style index had the largest increase, followed by the cyclical and financial indices [4][19] 3.4 Main Contract and Basis Trends - Index and Basis: The four major indices stabilized and rebounded. The IM basis fluctuated at a high level [22] - Arbitrage of Main Contracts: The ratios of IC/IF and IC/IH stopped falling and stabilized, IH/IF oscillated, and the ratios of IM/IF and IM/IH stopped falling [24] 3.5 Policy and Economy - PMI: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The economy showed a recovery trend but was still in the contraction phase [28] - PPI and Inventory Cycle: Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen changes in its decline rate since then. In July, industrial enterprise revenue fell for five consecutive months to 2.3%, and inventory fell for five consecutive months to 2.4%, entering the active de - stocking phase [30] - Social Financing and Credit: In September 2025, China's social financing scale was 3.7635 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. Newly added RMB loans were 1.608 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 366.2 billion yuan [33] - Medium - and Long - Term Credit Growth Rate: The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling for 28 consecutive months to 6.30% as of September 2025 [36] - Policy for Medium - and Long - Term Funds: The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market aims to increase the investment scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, extend the assessment cycle, and form a joint force for policy implementation [38] - Other Policies: The central bank created new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, reduced interest rates, and carried out debt - to - equity swaps to support the capital market and the real economy [42][44][46] 3.6 Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - Revenue Growth: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and CSI 500 rebounded, while the growth rates of other indices declined or turned negative [55] - Net Profit Growth: Except for the SSE 50 index, the growth rates of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and Science and Technology Innovation Board rebounded [55] 3.7 Other Aspects - Technical Analysis: Not provided in detail in the given content - Restricted Stock Unlocking: The unlocking volume was relatively large in mid - October [103] - Secondary Market Shareholder Transactions: Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market significantly net - sold 10.1 billion yuan [102]