南华期货聚丙烯产业周报：短期跟随宏观波动，且空间有限-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: The polyolefin market rebounds driven by crude oil and coking coal, with its trend mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and cost fluctuations. Given many macro - level disturbances and limited supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading recently [7]. - Long - term: Despite continuous pressure on the PP supply side due to intensive production, new PP device production is relatively limited in Q1 2026, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. With an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up trend in the long run [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost side: Crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical issues such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend because of supply - side factors like production cuts in some regions and reduced Mongolian coal customs clearance [1]. - Supply - demand side: In supply, unexpected PP device shutdowns increase recently, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but the large - scale PP production capacity makes it hard to fundamentally relieve the pressure. In demand, traditional PP downstream shows little change, but downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after continuous price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - Near - term strategy review: A unilateral strategy of buying at low prices was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range prediction: The predicted monthly price range of polypropylene is 6500 - 7000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.43% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7% [13]. - Hedging strategy: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short PP futures and sell call options. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy PP futures [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Crude oil rises rapidly due to geopolitical issues; PP production lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Zhongjing Petrochemical stop [19]. - Negative information: The 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical will start next week; Daxie Petrochemical's old production lines will stop [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session and the results of Sino - US trade policy negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital movement: Since Wednesday, the PP disk rebounds driven by crude oil. This week, the position volume slightly declines, the top five short positions increase significantly, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats slightly increases [22]. - Basis structure: The PP disk rises rapidly following crude oil, while the spot price lags, causing the basis to weaken. As of Friday, the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton, the East China basis is - 62 yuan/ton, and the South China basis is - 72 yuan/ton [25]. - Spread structure: The spread structure changes little, and the PP 1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to an optimistic macro - expectation [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - PDH devices maintain positive profits, with expected reduced unexpected shutdowns and increased operating rates. The profit of externally purchased propylene recovers, and the situation of suspending PP device sales of propylene is expected to decrease, increasing supply - side pressure and weakening cost support [32]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The follow - up supply - demand pressure is not significant. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in Q4 on the supply side, a high demand growth rate on the demand side (current apparent demand year - on - year growth rate is 11%), and limited PP import volume increase on the import - export side [41]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 75.94% (- 2.28%). Many devices stop unexpectedly this week, resulting in a short - term supply reduction [47]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Side and Deduction - Import: Due to weak overseas prices, some low - cost PP sources may enter China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - Export: Weak overseas demand and the off - season limit PP exports, but some enterprises increase sales by reducing prices, leading to a surge in export orders this week [52]. 3.5.4 Demand Side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.376% (+ 0.52%). Although traditional PP downstream changes little, downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [59].