Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The 10 - month interest rate cut is certain. Trump's optimistic signals about China - US relations and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. The supply side is under pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and maintenance of some domestic smelters, while the demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is weak, and the growth in emerging fields is uncertain. Overall, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Considering the macro - upward drive and the large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - term investment. In the short term, it is advisable to enter the market on dips [2]. Summaries by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices had a narrow - range oscillation this week. Macroeconomic factors included a confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution". Fundamentally, there were continuous disturbances at the mine end, some domestic smelters were under maintenance, TC continued to decline, and the supply - side pressure was obvious. Demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the growth in emerging fields was uncertain, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation [2]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 288,000 yuan and sell 25% of the call options SN2511C290000 when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 277,000 yuan and sell 25% of the put options SN2511P270000 when the volatility is appropriate. The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 284,300 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan, the current volatility is 18.59%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 45.8% [20][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Likely Positive Information: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, up 3.8%; the secondary industry was 3.6402 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; the tertiary industry was 5.92955 trillion yuan, up 5.4%. - Spot Transaction Information: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 281,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.32%); 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.27%); 63A solder bar is 190,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.26%); lead - free solder is 288,250 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan (0.35%) [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate data will be released [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Tin Futures Disk Data: The latest price of the main Shanghai tin contract is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,550 yuan (1.26%); Shanghai tin continuous - one is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan (1.11%); Shanghai tin continuous - three is 284,450 yuan/ton, up 3,100 yuan (1.1%); LME tin 3M is 35,650 US dollars/ton, up 678 US dollars (1.94%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, down 0.03 (- 0.38%). - Tin Inventory Data: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,567 tons, down 85 tons (- 1.5%); Shanghai tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons (- 3.2%); LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,495 tons, down 10 tons (- 0.4%); LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 255 tons, up 25 tons (10.87%); LME tin inventory is 2,720 tons, up 145 tons (5.63%); social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 110 tons (- 1.13%) [24][25][26]. Internal Market Analysis - Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement: This week, tin prices oscillated within a narrow range, closing at 280,700 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable seats are mainly long in net positions. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: This week, the domestic term structure changed to a B - structure, affected by the expected increase in future supply [27][29]. Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with a narrow - range oscillation [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have long been hovering at historical lows, which has put pressure on smelters' profits and suppressed their production willingness [37]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - There are data on the seasonal import volume of Chinese tin ore and concentrates and unforged non - alloy tin, but no specific profit - related analysis is provided in the part of the summary. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply side is under great pressure due to mine - end disturbances and smelters' losses [44]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are data on the seasonal monthly production of domestic refined tin, recycled refined tin, and the seasonal monthly apparent consumption of Chinese tin ingots, but no specific demand - side deduction analysis is provided in the part of the summary.
南华期货锡产业周报：窄幅震荡，短期等待入场机会-20251026
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-26 13:15