旺季强现实驱动，盘面增仓上行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong upward trend. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 4.3% and 4.9% respectively. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 2.8% and 2.9%. The price of lithium hydroxide stabilized. The strong reality of destocking during the peak season attracted incremental funds, causing the lithium carbonate futures to increase in both price and trading volume. The inventory of lithium carbonate in China decreased by 0.23 million tons to 13.0 million tons, and the destocking pace accelerated. The resumption of the Jiangxi mica project is still uncertain [2][12][15] - In the future, the demand in the terminal energy storage field remains strong, and battery cell factories are operating at full capacity. The apparent demand in November may still have a small increase. Before the supply - side projects resume production, the balance sheet will maintain destocking in the short term, which will support prices. However, further upward price movement may depend on unexpected disruptions on the supply side. In terms of strategies, short - term interval operations are recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks should be monitored. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed for profit. In the future, attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][15] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Peak Season Strong Reality Drives, and the Market Increases in Volume and Price - Lithium salt prices were strong last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 4.3% and 4.9% respectively compared to the previous week, reaching 78,900 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.8% and 2.9% to 75,400 yuan/ton and 73,200 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide stabilized [2][12] - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures increased. The main contract LC2601 had a weekly increase of nearly 5%, and the trading volume increased by 1.6 million lots to 4.3 million lots, reaching a record high. The strong reality of destocking during the peak season attracted incremental funds. The inventory of lithium carbonate in China decreased by 0.23 million tons to 13.0 million tons, and the destocking pace accelerated. The resumption of the Jiangxi mica project is still uncertain [2][15] 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - In September 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 710,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.7%. From January to September, China's lithium ore imports were 5.576 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 37% [16] - In September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. From January to September, China's lithium carbonate imports were 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 1,473 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 74.8%. From January to September, China's lithium hydroxide imports were 10,654 tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.9% [16] - The first batch of spodumene concentrate was shipped from the Bougouni lithium project. The project team will transport 30,000 tons of spodumene concentrate to the port for export to Hainan, China, and will also transport the current inventory of 45,000 tons [17] - EVE Energy announced that in the third quarter of 2025, its revenue was 16.832 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.85%, and its net profit was 1.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.13%. From January to September, its revenue was 45.002 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 32.17%, and its net profit was 2.816 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.70%. In the first three quarters of 2025, its power battery shipments were 34.59GWh, a year - on - year increase of 66.98%, and its energy storage battery shipments were 48.41GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35.51% [17] - Pilbara Minerals announced its Q3 2025 operating results. The production of spodumene concentrate in this quarter was 224,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The sales price of spodumene sc6 in the quarter was $841, a month - on - month increase of 19%. The quarterly recovery rate reached 78%, and the operating cost per ton (FOB) decreased by 13% to A$540 ($351) compared to the previous quarter [18] 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: The Spot Price of Lithium Concentrate Remains Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remains stable, but specific data is not provided in the text [19] 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Increases in Volume and Price - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures increased, and the price of the main contract LC2601 increased by nearly 5%. The trading volume increased by 1.6 million lots to 4.3 million lots, reaching a record high [2][15] - The prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend. The average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.8% and 2.9%, and the average prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 0.8% [2][12] 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: The Quotes of Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Increase Sharply - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The spot price of ternary material 523 increased by 8.9%, and the spot price of lithium cobalt oxide increased by 4.6% [13] 3.3.4. Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [46]