华联期货周报：中国前三季度GDP增长5.2%美国通胀低于预期-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew 4.8% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, with cumulative GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, indicating overall economic stability during structural adjustment [4]. - The tertiary industry (services) had a prominent supporting role, with a 5.6% year-on-year increase in added value in Q3, while the secondary and primary industries also showed growth [4]. - Exports remained resilient, consumption recovered moderately, and fixed - asset investment faced marginal pressure. Net exports contributed 24.5% to GDP growth in Q3, and retail sales showed a 3.0% year-on-year increase in September [4]. - Structural transformation deepened, with new - quality productivity accelerating implementation. The proportion of equipment and high - tech manufacturing in industrial added value increased, and the "Three New" economies continued to grow [4]. - In September 2025, real estate investment, new construction, and construction area declined year - on - year, but the completion end improved. Industrial production showed a strong recovery, with a 6.5% year - on - year actual increase in industrial added value [5]. - US inflation in September was lower than expected, strengthening the market's consensus that inflation is on a downward path and increasing the probability of Fed rate cuts [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly and annual growth rates of different industries from 2023 to 2025 are presented, showing the performance of various sectors, such as agriculture, industry, and services [7]. - The contribution rates and pulling effects of the three industries on GDP growth are analyzed through figures from 2013 - 2025 [8][9][12]. - The contribution of each component of GDP is detailed, including industries like agriculture, industry, and services from 2023 to 2025 [13]. Industry - Industrial added value data of different industries from 2019 - 2025 show the growth trends of industries such as mining, manufacturing, and high - tech industries [20][22]. - The production volume of major industrial products from 2024 - 2025 is provided, including energy, industrial raw materials, and finished products [24]. - Electricity generation data, including daily average and year - on - year growth rates, as well as the performance of thermal, hydro, and wind power, are presented [28]. - Industry electricity consumption data from 2024 - 2025 show the consumption situation of different industries, with some industries like manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing showing growth [31][32]. - Industrial enterprise profit data from January - August 2025 show the profit performance of different industries, with some industries like manufacturing and power supply showing growth and others like mining showing decline [35][39]. - Industrial enterprise inventory data as of August 2025 show that the overall finished - product inventory is stable with a slight decline, and the inventory of the mining industry has decreased significantly [46]. Price Index - In September 2025, China's CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year, with food prices falling and non - food prices rising. The CPI components' year - on - year and month - on - month data from 2024 - 2025 are also provided [51][52]. - In September 2025, China's PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The PPI of different production and living materials and major industries from 2024 - 2025 are presented [58][61]. - The year - on - year and month - on - month changes in industrial producer purchase prices from 2024 - 2025 are provided, showing price changes in different material categories [62][63].