房地产行业周度观点更新：地产的三个相对确定性-20251026

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes three relatively certain segments within the real estate industry: the alpha of good properties, the stabilization of Hong Kong property prices, and the stable cash flow from commercial real estate and property management [3][12]. - The marginal downward pressure on the market has increased since April, but the rapid decline in volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and good properties [8]. - The current market valuation of some quality real estate companies, such as Greentown China and Jianfa International, does not fully reflect future performance expectations [3][12]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.91% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 13.95%, but underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index [9][19]. - The real estate sector's performance has been mixed, with both increases and decreases observed among development, property management, and rental companies [9]. Policy Updates - Recent policies in Guangzhou aim to boost housing-related consumption, while Weifang and Nanjing have optimized housing fund withdrawal policies to support home purchases [10][21]. - Specific measures include the promotion of old community renovations and the easing of housing fund withdrawal restrictions to stimulate demand [10][21]. Sales Data - New and second-hand housing transactions in sample cities continue to show low-level fluctuations, with new housing transaction area down by 29.1% year-on-year and second-hand housing down by 16.4% [11][22]. - As of October 24, the new housing transaction area for 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 29.9% [11][22]. Structural Highlights - The report identifies three key areas of focus: the alpha of good properties, the stabilization of Hong Kong property prices, and the stable cash flow from commercial real estate and property management [3][12]. - The report suggests that the adjustment phase of the real estate cycle may have entered its latter half, with sales volume nearing a central point and average prices having absorbed previous excessive increases [12].