Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The lithium industry has passed its darkest moment, with a clear trend of improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. Domestic demand for power steadily increases, coupled with strong energy storage demand, leading to a significant upward revision of terminal growth rates for 2026. The industrialization process of solid-state batteries further strengthens the medium to long-term industry outlook [5][3] - In the precious metals sector, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to various factors, including easing silver market pressures and expectations of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, this does not change the trend of increasing allocation to gold stocks. The current price movements are seen as fluctuations rather than a trend reversal [3][4] - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are viewed positively as supply bottlenecks are gradually alleviated. The report highlights the impact of improved trade relations between China and the US, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry - The darkest period for the lithium sector is over, with improving supply-demand fundamentals. Domestic power demand is growing steadily, and energy storage demand remains strong. The terminal growth rate for 2026 has been significantly revised upward, and the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, enhancing long-term industry expectations. Supply-side uncertainties in overseas resource development and weak profitability due to low lithium prices have peaked capital expenditures in the industry by 2024-2025. Although there will still be some capacity release in 2026, supply growth is expected to decline from 2026 to 2028 [5][3] Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices have seen significant fluctuations recently, driven by easing pressures in the silver market and expectations of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite these fluctuations, the trend of increasing allocation to gold stocks remains intact. The report emphasizes that the current price movements are more about valuation adjustments rather than a definitive trend reversal [3][4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to perform well as supply bottlenecks are gradually resolved. The easing of trade tensions between China and the US, along with geopolitical developments, has contributed to a positive outlook for these metals. The report highlights that copper and aluminum inventories have improved, and the overall macroeconomic environment is becoming more favorable for industrial metals [4][5]
黄金是波动而非转折,碳酸锂将迎拐点之年