可转债周度追踪：韧性中酝酿新机会-20251026

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session clearly proposed to accelerate high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength. The underlying logics of the long - term supply - demand imbalance of convertible bonds, the equity bull market, and the technology mainline have not changed. Convertible bonds are brewing structural opportunities in the short term. Balanced allocation can cope with the volatile situation, waiting for the equity market to find a new direction and consolidate the foundation for a new round of trends [1][3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The convertible bond index has turned to a volatile state and showed resilience during the adjustment. Since September, in the market adjustment process, the convertible bond market has shown certain resilience with a smaller adjustment range than the underlying stocks. The rigid demand of fixed - income plus funds has kept the convertible bond price and valuation center at a high level. In the past week, the market volume shrank, with the average daily trading volume of the whole market only being 50 - 60 billion yuan, and the turnover rate has been decreasing since September [8] - With the maturity and exit of Pufa Convertible Bonds, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market has significantly decreased. The number of convertible bonds that can still be in existence (i.e., not subject to forced redemption) has decreased to 402, and the outstanding scale has dropped below 570 billion yuan. The power equipment industry has become the industry with the largest outstanding scale, and bank convertible bonds have become the second - largest. The proportion of high - rated convertible bonds has decreased to 31%. As of now in 2025, the issuance scale of new bonds is 42.4 billion yuan, and there may still be 5 convertible bonds entering the issuance and listing process before the end of the year. Recently, there are two positive signals in convertible bond supply: the number of convertible bond issuance plans has increased significantly, and the regulatory approval pace has accelerated. The convertible bond market is expected to see marginal improvement in 2026 [8] - The scale of new bonds listed this year is not small, and the pricing is high in a bull - market atmosphere, with relatively concentrated floating chips. As of now in 2025, the issuance scale of new bonds is 42.4 billion yuan, with the average conversion premium rate on the listing day being 37% and the average increase or decrease on the first day being 33%. The average conversion premium rate of new bonds listed this year is still 38%, significantly higher than the market average. The bull - market atmosphere combined with the relatively small floating chips of new bonds has led to relatively concentrated chips and pushed up the pricing of new bonds. There may still be 5 convertible bonds entering the issuance and listing process before the end of the year [9] - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session clearly proposed to accelerate high - level scientific and technological self - reliance and self - strength, consolidating the underlying logic of the technology mainline. Sino - US relations are expected to enter a new stable period by the end of the month. The underlying logic of the long - term bull market in the equity market remains unchanged, and technology is still the mainline of the market. The underlying logics of the long - term supply - demand imbalance of convertible bonds, the equity bull market, and the technology mainline have not changed [9] - Convertible bonds are brewing structural opportunities in the short term, and balanced allocation can cope with the volatile situation. First, varieties with relatively low premium rates are more resistant to decline. Currently, low - premium convertible bond varieties are concentrated in the technology track, and short - term suppression of risk appetite may increase the volatility of the underlying stocks. Second, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds still have strong gambling value. On the one hand, they have strong bond - floor protection and limited downside space; on the other hand, if some funds from the underlying stocks swing back to defensive sectors, fundamental catalysts or clause gambling materialize, it may bring excess returns. Investors can select and lay out varieties with "double - low" characteristics (low price + low premium) or "low price + high elasticity" potential by combining fundamentals, clause settings, and market sentiment. In October, investors are advised to pay attention to Shanghai Bank Convertible Bonds, Shouhua Convertible Bonds, Jinko Convertible Bonds, Kangtai Convertible Bonds 2, Baolong Convertible Bonds, Keshun Convertible Bonds, Yingbo Convertible Bonds, Huaya Convertible Bonds, Wankai Convertible Bonds, and Luwei Convertible Bonds [10] 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (recent one week, recent two weeks, since September, recent one month, recent two months, recent half - year, and recent one year), including the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [13] 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - No specific summary information provided, only source information is given [15] 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - No specific summary information provided, only some charts are mentioned [17] 2.4 Convertible Bond Price - No specific summary information provided, only some charts are mentioned [22]