南华期货铁合金周报：短期成本支撑，但上行空间有限-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The ferroalloy market is currently facing the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with silicon-manganese enterprise inventories at a five-year high and a 11.8% week-on-week increase, indicating significant inventory pressure [2]. - Cost support is challenged as the pattern of high supply and weak demand persists, although rising coking coal prices provide short-term support [2]. - There is a contradiction between the anti-involution expectation and weak reality, with a high risk of price surges followed by declines due to the lack of substantial action [2]. - Despite support from coking coal prices, the ferroalloy's fundamentals cannot support significant upward movement, and its upside potential is limited [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions affecting ferroalloy trends include the high inventory and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the conflict between anti-involution expectations and weak reality [2]. - Downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and steel mills' profitability has declined, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market [2][3]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Technically, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound, but there is pressure for further upward movement without an improvement in fundamentals [12]. - Price Range: The price range for the silicon-iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and for the silicon-manganese main contract, it is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - Basis Strategy: With weak downstream demand, the basis is expected to narrow slightly, and there is currently no basis strategy [12]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: Although the 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five-year low, it is not recommended to buy at the bottom immediately, and there is a risk of further weakening [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range for silicon-iron is 5300 - 6000, and for silicon-manganese, it is 5300 - 6000 [13]. - Hedging Strategy: Enterprises with high product inventories are advised to short ferroalloy futures to lock in profits, while those with low procurement inventories can buy futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Sino-US economic and trade consultations have eased market concerns, and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased [14]. - Negative Information: Steel demand has been weak during the peak season, steel mills' profitability has declined, and the real estate market has continued to slump [15][16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 25th will be announced next Thursday [18]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the US core PCE price index annual rate for September will be released next Friday [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The closing price of the silicon-iron main contract 2601 increased by 2.06% week-on-week, and its total open interest decreased by 12.6%. The silicon-manganese main contract 01 closed up 0.94% week-on-week, with its total open interest down 9.1% [18]. - The net short position in silicon-iron is gradually increasing, while the net short position in silicon-manganese is gradually decreasing [18]. 3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of some silicon-iron contracts is improving to a backwardation structure [23]. - The basis of ferroalloys has been fluctuating within a narrow range, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse arbitrage is also high [12][23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Ferroalloy profits have been declining continuously, with strong incentives for silicon-iron enterprises to cut production, while silicon-manganese production has been falling for multiple weeks [41]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of silicon-iron has improved, and its export volume is expected to increase [66]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply-Demand Balance Sheet Projection - On the supply side, production is expected to decline due to falling production profits and the arrival of the flat-water season, which may reduce output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas [68]. - On the demand side, the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline slightly due to the decline in downstream steel profits and the accumulation of steel inventories [68]. - Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [68]. 5.2 Supply Side and Projection - Ferroalloy production is not expected to increase due to falling production profits, and the output of silicon-manganese in the southern regions may decline with the arrival of the flat-water season [70]. - Silicon-iron production is expected to decline slightly due to a significant drop in production profits [70]. 5.3 Demand Side and Projection - Although the demand for ferroalloys is expected to increase seasonally during the peak season, the decline in downstream steel profits and the accumulation of steel inventories have suppressed the demand for ferroalloys [73][74]. - The high level of hot metal production is difficult to maintain due to the decline in steel mills' profitability, which may lead to a decrease in the demand for ferroalloys in steelmaking [74]. 5.4 Inventory Side and Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, but warehouse receipts are expected to be destocked, and the total inventory will maintain a slow destocking trend [83].