Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soda Ash: The soda ash production capacity is sufficient, the output is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. There is a large pressure of oversupply. After the short - term profit of soda ash is in deficit, the cost support gradually appears, but the rebound drive is insufficient, and the high supply suppresses the market greatly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [5]. - Glass: The glass supply tends to be stable, the year - on - year decline in output narrows, the downstream demand continues to decline, the peak - season consumption is lower than expected, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The market continues the pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The short - term supply is difficult to decrease, and it is difficult for manufacturers to reduce inventory. The future market should pay attention to the capacity policy. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - ly Views and Strategies - Soda Ash Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons, with 767,600 tons of light soda ash and 934,500 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 51,800 tons, a rise of 3.14%. The enterprise shipment was okay, the production and sales tended to be balanced, and individual enterprises accumulated inventory. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises decreased within the week [5]. - Soda Ash Supply: As of October 23, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 74,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10 tons, a rise of 0.01%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 33,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5700 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 40,990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5600 tons. The output fluctuated slightly due to the load reduction and short - stop of individual enterprises [5]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of October 23, 2025, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.60%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points. The production and sales of individual enterprises were basically balanced [5]. - Glass Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous period [6]. - Glass Supply: From October 17 - 23, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 76.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged from the previous week. The national float glass output was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.51% [6]. - Glass Profit: From October 17 - 23, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton [6]. - Glass Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%. Enterprises with pre - stored original sheets are currently mainly digesting inventory and only appropriately replenishing some out - of - stock specifications [6]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - Soda Ash Industry Chain: The upstream includes natural soda ash mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [8]. - Flat Glass Industry Chain: The upstream raw materials include quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, coloring agents), and fuels (coal - made gas 24%, natural gas 40%, petroleum coke 16%). The mid - stream products are flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products (tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass) and end - use industries (real estate 75%, automobile 18%, electronic appliances 7%) [9]. 3.3. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures and Spot Prices: As of October 24, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1092, and the North China basis was 48 yuan/ton; the closing price of the SA main contract was 1229, and the North China basis was 71 yuan/ton [13][16]. - Contract Spreads: As of October 24, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 144 yuan/ton; the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 90 yuan/ton [19]. 3.4. Inventory - Glass Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China all increased to varying degrees [22]. - Soda Ash Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 51,800 tons, a rise of 3.14% [31]. 3.5. Supply Side - Glass Supply: From October 10 - 16, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged from the previous week. The national float glass output was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62%. The profit of float glass using different fuels decreased to varying degrees [35][37]. - Soda Ash Supply: As of October 23, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 74,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10 tons, a rise of 0.01%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 33,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5700 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 40,990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5600 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash using the joint - alkali method and the ammonia - alkali method both decreased [45][48]. 3.6. Demand Side - Glass Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%. Some enterprises were in a state of no orders, and some engineering orders could be scheduled for 20 - 40 days [52]. - Soda Ash Demand: As of October 23, 2025, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.60%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points. The production and sales of individual enterprises were basically balanced [64].
纯碱玻璃周报：玻碱反弹乏力，关注产能政策-20251026
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-10-26 13:42