美国9月CPI点评：通胀低于预期，后续两降信号渐明

Inflation Overview - In September, the overall CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI remained at 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from August[2] Market Implications - The September inflation data is seen as a "light brake," indicating a potential path for two interest rate cuts later this year, especially following the government shutdown[4] - The inflation level remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, but the current trend does not suggest a significant acceleration in inflationary pressures[4] Sector Contributions - Food prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.2% in August, with household food prices stable at 2.7%[5] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, a significant rise from 0.4% in August, contributing notably to the overall inflation increase[5] - Core services inflation showed signs of cooling, with contributions from services decreasing from 2.18% to 2.12%[11] Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift in focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment," suggesting a more dovish stance on future monetary policy[18] - Market expectations are leaning towards two additional rate cuts by the end of the year, supported by the latest inflation data[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include uncertainties in overseas economic policies and a decline in external demand, which could impact inflation and economic stability[23]