金属&新材料行业周报20251020-20251024：降息预期升温，关注金铜优质标的-20251026

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to elevate valuation levels across the sector. It recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI data centers and electric grid investments [4][9]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [5][7]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals saw varied price changes, with copper up by 2.20% and aluminum up by 7.61%. Precious metals, however, experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 3.30% [4][9]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 5.37% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up by 23.33% [4][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, which could lead to a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the near term [4][9]. - The demand for copper remains robust, with operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [4][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, among others [4][17]. - For aluminum, companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are highlighted due to their integrated operations and cost improvements [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities based on current valuations [17][18].