铅产业链周度报告-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is increasing while the demand is weak, which restricts the price increase. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 17,200 - 17,800 yuan/ton. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. The processing fee of lead concentrate remains weak [3][5][7]. - The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased. The start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The spot end's role in pushing up the price has weakened. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction Volume, Open Interest) - Price and Spread: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 17,595 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.05%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,575 yuan, with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The LME lead cash - forward spread changed from - 41.85 to - 36.64, with a change of 5.21. The premium of lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 112.5. The spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead changed from - 25 to - 10, with a change of 15. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 75, with a change of - 25 [8]. - Inventory: From October 16th to October 23rd, the domestic lead inventory decreased from 37,700 tons to 31,900 tons, still at a relatively low level for the same period in history. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 9,034 tons to 23,048 tons, the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 5,368 tons to 36,333 tons, the social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons to 31,900 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 15,025 tons to 235,375 tons [7][8]. - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead last week was 79,514 lots, an increase of 39,872 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 83,846 lots, an increase of 43,628 lots from the previous week. The trading volume of LME S - lead 3 was 4,991 lots, a decrease of 997 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots from the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The processing fee of lead concentrate continues to be weak. The spot import TC of 60% lead concentrate decreased to - 125 US dollars/ton this week. The import lead concentrate processing fee decreased from - 110 to - 125 US dollars/ton, and the import lead concentrate smelting profit decreased by 152 yuan/ton to - 1,850 yuan/ton. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the domestic lead concentrate smelting profit remained at - 2,800 yuan/ton [5][7][8]. - Primary Lead and Secondary Lead: The primary lead production is under pressure, but the profit of secondary lead enterprises continues to expand, and the production increase expectation is strong. Some secondary lead enterprises in some regions are under maintenance due to environmental protection control, but the profit of primary lead has increased, and the supply of waste batteries is abundant. Secondary lead enterprises in Anhui have resumed production more [7]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - Lead - Acid Batteries: Consumption is gradually entering the off - season. The enthusiasm of dealers to take delivery has decreased, the start - up rate of battery factories may decline, and raw material procurement may be restricted. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in previous years is shown in the data, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are also provided [7][46]. - End - Users: The actual consumption of lead in previous years is shown in the data, along with the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles [48].