Changjiang Securities·2025-10-26 14:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the military industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the timely achievement of the centenary goal of building a strong military, highlighting the modernization of national defense and military capabilities [13] - It identifies three dimensions—defense budget, military trade, and military-civilian integration—as key areas for growth in the military industry, indicating that the sector still has significant growth potential [20] - The report outlines a new "three-step" strategy for national defense and military modernization, aiming for substantial advancements by 2035 and a world-class military by the mid-21st century [17] Summary by Sections Section 1: National Defense and Military Goals - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasizes achieving the centenary goal of building a strong military and advancing military modernization [13] - The session outlines a strategic framework for military development, focusing on political, reform, technological, and talent-driven advancements [13] Section 2: Defense Budget and Military Trade - China's defense budget for 2025 is projected at 1.7847 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, which is higher than the GDP growth target [23] - The report notes that China's defense spending as a percentage of GDP has room to grow, with a current ratio lower than that of major Western countries [23][25] - China's military trade share in the global market is approximately 6%, with potential for significant growth if it reaches 10%-20% [28] Section 3: Military-Civilian Integration - The report highlights the commercial aviation sector's potential for growth, estimating that the domestic commercial aircraft market could be 2.5 times the current military aircraft market [33] - It discusses the expected growth in the commercial aerospace sector, driven by advancements in satellite technology and the establishment of large satellite constellations [39] Section 4: Space Industry Development - The Fourth Plenary Session calls for accelerated construction of a strong aerospace nation, with significant investments in commercial space initiatives [39] - The report details plans for multiple large-scale satellite constellations, with significant deployment milestones set for 2025, 2027, and 2030 [52][48] Section 5: Investment Strategy for the Military Industry - The report suggests a focus on companies that enhance product capabilities, market penetration, and customer pricing as key investment targets [71] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks based on their potential for growth in the context of military modernization and technological advancements [71]