Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with high pig production capacity and a weak demand outlook. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the policy has released positive signals, the actual reduction in production capacity is less than expected. The pig price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state in the short term, with a possible seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter and a potential price rebound [7][8]. - For the strategy, the main contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 13,000. In the options market, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Fundamental Viewpoints - Spot Market: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low pig price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, providing some support around 10 yuan/kg. However, the high supply and weak demand situation persists, and the market is expected to remain weak and volatile [7][14]. - Production Capacity: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national pig slaughter reached 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. By the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to continue to grow until May 2026 [7]. - Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: Policy signals are positive, but the actual reduction in production capacity is slow. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand, so the pig price is under pressure. In the medium term, the production capacity is still being released. The government has introduced a "double 100,000 - head" task for large - scale breeding enterprises. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year is still large, but the demand may improve seasonally in the fourth quarter [8]. - Strategy: The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 13,000. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Pig Futures and Spot Prices: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, but the high supply and weak demand situation persists [14]. - Futures - Spot Basis: No specific information provided. - Futures Price Spreads: No specific analysis provided. - Standard - Fat and Hairy - White Price Spreads: The prices of standard and fat pigs increased synchronously this week. The average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.76 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The increase was due to the sufficient supply of standard pigs, low inventory of large - weight fat pigs, and the recovery of catering consumption. The price increase of standard pigs was more significant, leading to a narrowing of the price difference [34]. - Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 166.43 yuan/head, up 0.72% week - on - week and down 50.57% year - on - year. The low market sentiment and strict environmental regulations in Guangdong and Guangxi have reduced the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment [38]. - Price of Culled Sows: The average price of culled sows this week was 8.29 yuan/kg, up 2.01% week - on - week and down 35.59% year - on - year. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the pig price [41]. 3.3. Production Capacity - Inventory of Breeding Sows: In September 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Although it is within the normal range, it is at the upper limit. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to grow until May 2026. According to sample data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly in September, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms also decreased [45][48]. - Culling Volume of Breeding Sows: In September, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 106,603 heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.60%. The culling volume of small and medium - sized farms was 11,526 heads, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 29.83%. The culling volume is expected to continue to increase in October, but the process may be slow [51]. - Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows: No specific analysis provided. 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of Commercial Pigs: In September, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 36.8499 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The inventory of small and medium - sized farms was 1.5402 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The inventory is expected to increase in October [58]. - Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs: In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.2173 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.4803 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The slaughter volume is expected to increase in October [61]. - Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.21 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49%. The weight is expected to be supported next week [67]. 3.5. Demand Side - Pig Slaughter Volume: The proportion of pigs under 90 kg and over 150 kg in the slaughter volume remained the same as last week. The temperature drop has increased the expectation of a wider standard - fat price difference, but it has little impact on the slaughter proportion of small and large - weight pigs [71]. - Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week was 86.14%, the same as last week. The cold - storage rate was 18.08%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The fresh - sales rate is expected to decline next week, and the cold - storage rate may continue to increase slightly [76]. - Operating Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 34.94%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from last week and 7.35 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [77]. - Substitute Prices: No specific analysis provided. 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig Breeding and Slaughtering Profit: The pig breeding industry has entered a deep - loss stage. The average loss per head of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets this week was 149.54 yuan and 279.65 yuan respectively, both showing a downward trend. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not changed fundamentally [91]. - Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio: No specific analysis provided. - Pig - Grain Ratio: The pig - grain ratio this week was 5.13, a week - on - week increase of 3.89%. The market has returned to the third - level early - warning range. The pig - grain ratio is expected to fluctuate little next week [98].
华联期货生猪周报：产能过剩，猪价承压-20251026
Hua Lian Qi Huo·2025-10-26 14:47