国内政策利好提振，预计维持强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests holding mid - line long positions in copper, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Although the TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, the cash flow of smelters is supported by by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, and there is no large - scale production cut for now. In October, the increase in domestic smelting maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in the year - on - year growth rate and a month - on - month decrease in electrolytic copper production. The limited supply of anode copper restricts production, and the production in November may continue to decline. The increase in imported copper arrivals and weak downstream consumption have slowed down the inventory depletion rate [7]. - The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the downstream copper operating rate may decline, mainly dragged down by the sluggish building materials, home appliances, and real estate industries. However, the demand from the new energy industry is strong. It is expected that the copper demand in the power grid, new energy, home appliances and other fields from Q4 2025 to 2026 will receive rigid support, forming an important support for the demand side. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market sentiment [7]. - Last week, the LME copper inventory continued its downward trend, reaching a two - month low. The domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases. It is expected that the market will remain strong this week, with the possibility of further upward breakthrough [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - Strategy: Hold mid - line long positions, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to be a turning point in bilateral relations. China's "15th Five - Year Plan" has significantly boosted market sentiment [7]. - Supply: The TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, but by - product revenues support smelters. In October, domestic smelting maintenance increased, and production may decline in November. Imported copper arrivals and weak consumption slowed inventory depletion [7]. - Demand: The traditional peak season is ending, and downstream operating rates may fall due to weak industries, but new energy demand is strong. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market expectations [7]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory is down, while domestic social inventory is up, and high prices suppress purchases [7]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets There is no specific text content for summary in this section, only figure - related information. 3.3. Supply and Inventory - Global Copper Resource Distribution and Capital Expenditure: Copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, etc. China's copper resources are relatively scarce. Global long - term capital expenditure restricts incremental supply, and existing mines face challenges in stable production. Optimistic estimates for global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 128, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. In a neutral scenario, the supply growth rates are expected to be 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [21][22]. - Copper Concentrate: As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate is - 42.50 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price is 2902 US dollars/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [27]. - Global Copper Production Distribution: Different data sources show the copper production of various countries. The global copper mine production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [29]. - Global Major Copper Mine Project Increment and Main Newly - Added Smelting Capacities: In the next two years, there will be concentrated new and expansion projects of mines. The global copper mine capacity is expanding, but the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. In 2024, the global copper mine capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [32][34]. - Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory: In September 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to September, the imports were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In the 43rd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 404,000 tons [37]. - Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production: In August 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3033 million tons, with a surplus of 256,500 tons. From January to August, the production was 18.2159 million tons, with a surplus of 1.8436 million tons. In September 2025, China's domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64% [44]. - Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export: In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 3.5509 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.07% [47]. - Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference: In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. As of October 24, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 3079 yuan/ton [52]. - International Visible Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 136,900 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 348,000 tons, a new high in recent years [56][57]. - Domestic Inventory: As of October 23, 2025, China's social inventory was 189,800 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [60][61]. 3.4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - Primary Processing Market: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the imports were 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [66][70]. - Terminal Market - Power: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In August, the single - month investment was 48.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26%. From January to August, the cumulative power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with no year - on - year change. In August, the single - month investment was 70.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [75]. - Terminal Market - Real Estate: From January to September 2025, China's real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [78]. - Terminal Market - Automobile: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total vehicle sales [82]. - New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and New Energy Unit Copper Consumption: It is predicted that by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 25 million, accounting for about 25% of the global vehicle sales. By 2030, the market share will exceed 40%. The total copper consumption will increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [86]. - Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast: The new energy demand for copper is about to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is expected that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the building demand [97]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It is predicted that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024, be slightly in short supply in 2026, and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand will be in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of Chinese electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [104]. - Industrial Chain Structure: There is no specific text content for summary in this section.