金信期货日刊：鸡蛋期货价格上涨：短期反弹难改长期格局-20251027

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg futures prices is a short - term rebound. It is the result of short - term capital and spot price stabilization, but the long - term situation is still affected by high inventory, and the rebound height may be limited. Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to elimination data and peak - season demand fulfillment [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level next week [5]. - Gold has large fluctuations currently, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term. It is recommended to avoid risks first [10]. - For iron ore, although the terminal situation has not improved after the festival and hot metal may decline periodically, low - long opportunities can still be grasped due to the improved commodity sentiment recently [13]. - For glass, despite the afternoon decline today, it is at a relatively low level after previous adjustments, and low - long opportunities can be grasped considering the improved commodity sentiment [17]. - For eggs, although the egg supply is sufficient due to the increasing laying - hen inventory, the high loss in egg - chicken farming may bring short - term long opportunities [21]. - Pulp is expected to run weakly, and it should be treated as a low - level oscillation [25]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On October 24, the main continuous price of eggs rose to 3092 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.25%. The direct reasons for the increase are the shift of the main contract from 2511 to 2512 and the accelerated terminal sales due to low spot prices. However, the fundamental situation has not improved fundamentally, with an over - supply problem as the national laying - hen inventory is about 1.37 billion, far exceeding the reasonable range of 1.15 - 1.2 billion [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The trading volume is close to 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a new high in this round of the market. It is expected to continue to fluctuate upward at a high level next week [5]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold has large fluctuations currently, and short - term long - chasing is not advisable. It is recommended to avoid risks [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the festival, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal may decline periodically. Technically, it rose and then fell today, but low - long opportunities can be grasped due to the improved commodity sentiment. In the long - term, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting change is small, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week. After previous adjustments, it is at a relatively low level, and low - long opportunities can be grasped considering the improved commodity sentiment [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Eggs - The laying - hen inventory continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, which suppresses the price rebound. However, according to current prices and costs, egg - chicken farming will face a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken, so short - term long opportunities can be grasped [21]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has increased steadily today. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, the port de - stocking is lower than expected, and the purchasing end is cautious. Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [25].