工业硅、多晶硅日评：区间整理-20251027

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, with supply still showing a certain increase and limited improvement in demand, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. The support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be monitored, and continuous attention should be paid to industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. - For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has led to an upward movement in the market. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is limited possibility of centralized restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may restrict the upside space of the market. Continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.47% to 8,920 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an increase in production in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The industrial silicon market is in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the market. The support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be monitored. The trading strategy is range operation [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.50 yuan/kg; N - type re - feed material decreased 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.04% to 52,305 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some may have new production capacity, and it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October. On the demand side, the market was quiet during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources [1]. Investment Strategy - The polysilicon market has moved up recently due to supply - side news. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is limited possibility of centralized restocking in the short term. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, light - position buying on dips can be considered [1]. Other Information - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - In September, automobile exports exceeded 600,000 vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports maintaining a rapid growth trend. From January to September 2025, automobile exports reached 4.95 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [1].