资讯早班车-2025-10-27-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on high - quality development, with key policy areas including technology, the real economy, upgrading, and consumption. The competition between China and the US will intensify in the field of AI. There may be less direct consumption stimulation than expected, and local inefficient investment will be further restricted. The real estate policy may be optimized but large - scale stimulus is not expected [32]. - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee reaffirmed the goal of reaching the economic level of moderately developed countries by 2035. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the economic growth rate may need to be maintained above 4.5%. High - quality development and scientific and technological self - reliance are of great importance. A new development pattern will be built by integrating supply and demand [33]. - Some US banks are facing credit losses due to borrower fraud and corporate bankruptcies, indicating an increase in US credit risks. However, the overall risk of the US banking industry is still relatively controllable [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In September 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous period but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous period and the same as last year's level. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous period and the same as last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends. The year - on - year growth rate of M0 was 11.5%, slightly down from 11.7% in the previous period; M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, up from 6.0% in the previous period; M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, down from 8.8% in the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rate of CPI was - 0.3%, slightly up from - 0.4% in the previous period but down from 0.4% in the same period last year. The year - on - year growth rate of PPI was - 2.3%, up from - 2.9% in the previous period but down from - 2.8% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural product trade [2]. - The central bank emphasized building a scientific and stable monetary policy system, handling various relationships, and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate [2]. - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The balance of real estate loans decreased slightly [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since October, many banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold accumulation. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - Some gold brands such as Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook have raised product prices. The strategic position of aluminum is rising, and its price is expected to remain high and volatile [5][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shanxi is increasing coal production to meet winter demand. In the first three quarters, the output of above - scale coal mines in Shanxi was 975.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [9]. - In September, the global crude steel output of 70 countries/regions decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. The prices of some steel and coal products showed different trends [9][10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - By the end of September, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased [11]. - The US announced sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Russia believes it will not have a significant impact on its economy. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $65 per barrel in Q4 2025 [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized improving agricultural production capacity and promoting the revitalization of the seed industry. Russia extended the export tariffs on sunflower - related products [13][14]. - From October 1st to 25th, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 0.36% month - on - month [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 27th, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. In October, the net investment in medium - term liquidity will reach 60 billion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level [15]. - This week, there will be 867.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 700 billion yuan of MLF due in the central bank's open market [15]. 3.3.2 Important News - China and the US held economic and trade consultations, reaching a basic consensus on important issues [17]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes solving the "three rural" issues, promoting industrial upgrading, and increasing investment in emerging fields [17]. - President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea and attend the APEC meeting. Many countries expect his new proposals for regional cooperation [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - The domestic bond market is generally weak, with most yields of cash bonds in the inter - bank market rising. The prices of some bonds in the exchange market showed different trends [26]. - The yields of European and US bonds showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.123, down 9 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index was flat, and non - US currencies showed mixed trends [31]. 3.4 Stock Market - On the evening of October 26th, many listed companies disclosed their third - quarter reports, with some showing significant profit growth. More than 100 A - share listed companies had a net profit growth rate of over 100% in the first three quarters [37]. - As the disclosure of the third - quarter reports of listed companies reaches a peak, fund managers will adjust their investment strategies based on the reports, mainly focusing on the technology sector [37]. - By the end of the third quarter, social security funds held shares in 135 stocks, with a total market value of 51.33 billion yuan. They increased their layout in the technology sector [37][38]