宏观和大类资产配置周报：关注“十五五”规划建议-20251027

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for economic growth, focusing on stabilizing growth policies and the development of advanced manufacturing and new productivity [6][22][24] - The macroeconomic indicators show a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8% [5][21] - The report highlights the need for effective implementation of fiscal policies to boost consumption and investment, particularly in the context of the real estate market [6][22] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24% and the CSI 300 futures up by 3.18% [2][13] - The report notes a rise in coal futures by 5.66%, while iron ore futures remained stable [2][13] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2][48] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation sequence is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on equities [6][48] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly in light of the anticipated implementation of "incremental" policies [4][14] - Bonds and currency are recommended for underweight positions due to expected short-term impacts from stock-bond dynamics [4][14] Sector Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with confidence boosted by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [43][45] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in smart and electric vehicles, supported by government initiatives [45][46] - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting the revitalization of existing properties [37][48] Economic Data Tracking - The report tracks high-frequency data, noting an increase in steel production rates and a decrease in social inventory for construction materials [27][32] - It also highlights fluctuations in consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector, with a slight increase in wholesale sales [37][40] - The report provides insights into the performance of various commodities, including significant movements in oil and gold prices [17][48]