股指期货：风偏积极，偏强运行

Report Overview - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The market rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points and approaching 4000 points. After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased, and the overall market risk preference rebounded. It is expected that the market may continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark is expected to be broken. The follow - up market strength depends on policy and market sentiment [1][2] Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: Last week, the market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3950 points, hitting a ten - year high and approaching 4000 points. Communication, electronics, and power equipment led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care led the losses [1] - Policy Impact: After the Fourth Plenary Session, policy uncertainty decreased. The "15th Five - Year Plan" re - emphasized "taking economic construction as the center" and the "2035 Vision Goals", indicating that stable growth will continue throughout the "15th Five - Year" period. It will also bring industrial upgrading and technological innovation, benefiting stock market speculation [1] - International Factors: China and the US have started negotiations in Malaysia. As the APEC meeting at the end of the month approaches, the market's expectation of trade relaxation has increased, boosting risk preference. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate meeting is approaching, and the expectation of a rate cut this month is dovish [1][2] - Future Market Expectation: Before the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the China - US APEC meeting, the market is expected to remain positive. It is expected that the market will continue to be bullish this week, and the 4000 - point mark may be broken. The follow - up strength depends on policy and market sentiment [2] - Attention Factors: "15th Five - Year Plan", China - US summit meeting, Fed's interest - rate meeting [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4] - Trend Strategy: Buy on dips. The core operating ranges of IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 are 4509 - 4741 points, 2972 - 3109 points, 6995 - 7464 points, and 7111 - 7590 points respectively [4] - Cross - variety Strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5] Spot Market Review - Global Stock Index Performance: Last week, US stocks (Dow Jones +2.2%, S&P 500 +1.92%, Nasdaq +2.31%), European stocks (UK FTSE 100 +3.11%, German DAX +1.72%, French CAC40 +0.63%), and Asian - Pacific stocks (Nikkei 225 +3.61%, Hang Seng Index +3.62%) all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% [9][10][12] - Index Performance in 2025: Since 2025, major domestic indices such as the ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and Small and Medium - cap Board Index have all risen [11] - Industry Performance in Index: In the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices, most industries rose last week, with telecommunications, information, and industry sectors performing well [14] Stock Index Futures Market Review - Futures Contract Performance: Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [16][17] - Basis and Cross - variety Ratio: The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio [21] Index Valuation Tracking - Valuation Data: As of October 24, the PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 index was 14.56 times, and the PE (TTM) of the SSE 50 index was 12.31 times. The PE (TTM) of the CSI 500 index was 34.39 times, and the PE (TTM) of the CSI 1000 index was 47.02 times [22][23] Market Fundamentals Review - Fund - related Data: The report shows the balance of margin trading in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline in capital interest rates last week, and the net capital injection by the central bank [25][26][27]