宏观转暖供给支撑，盘面或将震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week with a large increase. Looking ahead, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, which supports the overall commodity atmosphere. The supply side has strong support, terminal consumption performs well, and natural rubber inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term [8][9][83] 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged from 14,675 to 15,470 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend with a significant overall increase. As of the close on October 24, 2025, it closed at 15,335 yuan/ton, up 640 points or 4.36% for the week [6][15] (2) Spot Price - As of October 24, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 18,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,060 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][22] (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly last week. As of October 24, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 585 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased slightly last week [26][28] Important Market Information - The US 9 - month CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%; the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than the market expectation. The US 10 - month manufacturing PMI, service PMI, and composite PMI all rebounded compared with September and were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in October declined, and the 5 - to 10 - year inflation expectation rose to 3.9% [29] - Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting might be cancelled. The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and sanctioned Chinese large - scale refineries and oil traders for the first time. China urged the EU to stop this behavior [30][31] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The economic and trade consultations between China and the US were held from October 24 to 27. The EU supported the negotiation for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [30][32] - In September, China's automobile production and sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The sales volume of new energy vehicles and heavy trucks reached new highs. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 57.2% [33][34][35] Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, the production in some major natural rubber - producing countries changed: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia slightly decreased, while India, Vietnam, and China slightly increased. The total production in August was 987,000 tons, up 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly slower growth rate [38] - As of September 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [42][46][50] Demand - side Situation - As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.67%, up 0.95% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.58%, up 1.06% from last week [52] - As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.2758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% and a month - on - month increase of 16.35%; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86% and a month - on - month increase of 12.94% [56][59] - The monthly sales volume of Chinese heavy trucks was 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 103.487 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 56.3 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 10.65% [65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of October 24, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,020 tons, a decrease of 10,980 tons from last week. As of October 19, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons or 2.8%. The total inventory of dark rubber was 640,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; the total inventory of light rubber was 410,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period [80] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber producing areas are still in the peak supply season. Recently, the main producing areas at home and abroad have been affected by weather, and typhoons last week hindered rubber tapping, leading to an increase in raw material purchase prices. In the future, there is a strong expectation of increased supply as rainfall decreases. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [81] - On the demand side, the operating rate of tire enterprises rebounded slightly last week. The production of semi - steel tires was stable, and the production of snow tires was being stepped up due to insufficient inventory. The shipment of all - steel tire enterprises slowed down, and the finished product inventory increased slightly. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased, the sales volume of heavy trucks increased significantly, and the export of tires increased significantly [81] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly last week, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [82] 后市展望 - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract price fluctuated upward last week. In the future, the macro - market atmosphere is warming, the supply side has strong support, terminal demand is resilient, and inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Key points to focus on include the progress of Sino - US talks, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the promotion of zero - tariff policies [83][84] Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive investors can consider buying on dips; for arbitrage, consider a positive - spread strategy; for options, wait and see for now [85][86]