铁矿周报：需求边际转弱，铁矿预计以偏弱震荡为主-20251027

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract declined by 0.06%. With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [7][10] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China emphasizes adjusting monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on steel capacity replacement ratios in different regions [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's were 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [18][22] 4. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [23][26][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14,423.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.32 tons; the daily port clearance volume was 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons; the number of ships at the port was 107, a decrease of 17. In mid - October, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed a mixed trend, and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year increase of 2.57%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 1.46%; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.32%; the daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 42,100 tons. In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 141.8 million tons, and China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [31][32][33] 6. Future Outlook - With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [34] 7. Operational Strategies - Unilateral: Try short positions lightly at high points within the range. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [35]