Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the fundamental improvement drove the spread of bullish sentiment, and lithium carbonate prices showed a strong upward trend. Terminal demand was hot due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026, while supply only had a small increase due to tight mica ore, leading to a decline in total lithium carbonate inventory. The widening of the C - structure of near - month contracts and the market's bet on the non - resumption of production of Zhenxiawo lithium mine also drove the price to break through and rise [4]. - In the short term, bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited. The pressure on national subsidy funds is increasing, and the consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk. The market has already priced in the supply gap caused by the shutdown of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi in mid - August, and currently only Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo mine has not resumed production, so the upside space is expected to be limited [4][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - From October 17th to October 24th, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased, with changes of +4.58%, +5.33%, and +5.33% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price and the main contract price also rose by 4.94% and 4.81% respectively. The prices of cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 and 622) increased, while the price of phosphoric acid iron lithium remained unchanged and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB slightly decreased by 0.05%. The total lithium carbonate inventory remained unchanged [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of October 24, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 28,699 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 73,480 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 431,100 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of October 24, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,170 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous period. The import of lithium spodumene increased significantly, but the production increase of spodumene - to - lithium factories needed a further increase in lithium prices. Mica - to - lithium production faced a shortage of raw materials due to the shutdown of Zhenxiawo mine. Short - term supply remained high but was difficult to increase significantly [7]. - Lithium Salt Import: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile decreased by 22.5% year - on - year, accounting for about 55.2%, and the import volume from Argentina increased by 242.9% year - on - year, accounting for about 35.5% [7]. - Lithium Ore Import: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, the import from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, and the import from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month. The import from South Africa increased significantly [7]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of October 24, the production of phosphoric acid iron lithium was about 83,503 tons, with an operating rate of 73.49% (an increase of 5.6 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 2,000 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 19,084 tons, with an operating rate of 49.94% (an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 150 tons. The prices of ternary materials and phosphoric acid iron lithium increased [8]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1st to 19th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The penetration rate was 56.1%. The consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk due to the shortage of subsidy funds [9]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by about 1,040 tons, market inventory decreased by about 13,194 tons, and exchange inventory decreased by 1,987 lots [10]. This Week's Outlook - Short - term bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited because of the increasing pressure on national subsidy funds and the market's previous pricing of the supply gap [11]. 3. Industry News - Kodal's Bougouni project in Mali shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate on October 20, which will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [12]. - In Q3 2025, EVE Energy achieved both volume and profit growth. Its revenue was 16.832 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.85%, and its net profit was 1.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.13% [12]. - Pilgangoora produced 224,800 tons of lithium concentrate in Q3 2025, a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter, and sold 214,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous quarter. Its FOB operating cost decreased by 12.8% quarter - on - quarter, but it is expected to face cost - rising pressure in the remaining time of this fiscal year [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [14][16][18][21][23][25]
情绪驱动尤在上方空间，不宜过度乐观
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-27 01:47