研究所晨会观点精萃-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, China - US trade negotiations from the 24th - 27th progressed well, boosting market optimism. US September CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and the good progress of China - US trade negotiations boosted domestic market expectations. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, manufacturing, and technological self - reliance, which helped boost domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a cautious long - position recommendation; government bonds are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to have short - term volatile rebounds, with cautious long - positions recommended; precious metals are expected to have a short - term high - level correction, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Macro: Overseas, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations and lower - than - expected US inflation data increased global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation. For assets, the stock index and government bonds are expected to be volatile, while the black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors may have short - term rebounds, and precious metals may correct [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and military industry, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, domestic economic growth accelerated, and China - US trade negotiations progressed well. Policy orientation boosted domestic risk preference. The short - term macro upward drive strengthened, and short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Friday night. Although US inflation data increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the good progress of China - US trade negotiations reduced the demand for hedging. Precious metals are expected to have a short - term correction, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term long - position holders are advised to reduce positions and wait, while medium - to - long - term investors can buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, while the futures price rebounded slightly. With the release of the communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and positive news from China - US trade negotiations, the macro expectation remained strong. The apparent consumption of steel increased, and speculative demand also expanded. The supply of five major steel products increased, but considering the compressed profit of steel mills, future supply is expected to decline. The steel market has no trend - based market, and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [5][6]. - Iron Ore: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly on Friday, and the futures price was weakly volatile. Due to the compressed profit of steel mills, iron - water production has been declining for three consecutive weeks and may continue to decline. Steel mills mainly replenish stocks on a just - in - time basis. The global iron ore shipment increased, while the arrival volume decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot price of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Friday, while the futures price declined slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable in the short term. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly. The price of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The futures price of soda ash fluctuated within a range last week. The supply increased in the short term, and there are plans for capacity expansion in the fourth quarter. The demand increased slightly. The supply pressure remains, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - Glass: The futures price of glass fluctuated within a range last week. The supply remained stable, while the demand in the peak season was weaker than expected. The inventory of float glass is relatively high. With policy support, the glass market is expected to be traded within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end peak construction season [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The short - term macro environment is positive, but the high US copper inventory restricts import demand. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the futures price, while the possibility of the restart of a Panamanian copper mine needs to be monitored. The domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The copper price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9][10]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly on Friday. Although the impact of an overseas aluminum smelter's suspension of production is small, the overall market sentiment is positive, and the lack of downward momentum is due to market expectations. The decline in London aluminum inventory supports the price [10]. - Tin: After the end of the maintenance of a large - scale smelter in Yunnan, the smelting start - up rate increased significantly. However, the supply of tin ore remains tight. The high price suppresses consumption, but the low inventory in the early stage leads to some rigid - demand restocking. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: As of October 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume also increased year - on - year. The social inventory decreased slightly. The supply and demand both increased, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [11]. - Industrial Silicon: As of October 24, the weekly production increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a slight shutdown in the southwest region, the high start - up rate in Xinjiang brings supply pressure. The demand is relatively stable, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. - Polysilicon: The downstream prices are stable, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory remains high, and the policy expectation supports the price. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, waiting for changes in supply - demand or policy [12]. Energy - Chemicals - Crude Oil: After the sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil supply channel may be restricted, but the actual market participants are still waiting. The ongoing China - US talks may support the oil price, but the short - term short - selling trend remains unchanged until the return of Asian buyers [13][14]. - Asphalt: The rebound of the oil price drove up the asphalt futures price, but the basis remains low, and the actual shipment volume is low. The inventory pressure of asphalt plants continues, and the supply pressure increases. Considering the possible decline of crude oil prices in the future, the asphalt market may lack a strong upward drive [14]. - PX: The rise in crude oil prices drove up the polyester sector. The high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support for PX. The PX price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, but there is still a relatively large bearish risk [14]. - PTA: The downstream start - up rate decreased, but some winter - clothing orders increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cost is the main driving factor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the short term [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory increased, but the uncertainty of domestic ethylene production and the increase in downstream restocking may support the price. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [15]. - Short - Fiber: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly with the polyester sector and oil price, but it is expected to remain weak and volatile. The terminal orders increased seasonally, but the increase was limited, and the inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited, and a short - selling strategy can be considered in the medium - term [15]. - Methanol: The current device maintenance reduced the production capacity utilization rate, but the supply pressure is expected to increase next week. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The methanol price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [16]. - PP: Although there is some device maintenance, the supply is still sufficient. The demand improved significantly due to "Double 11" stocking, and the inventory decreased slightly. The PP price may have a short - term repair [16]. - LLDPE: The expected supply of polyethylene increases, and the industrial inventory decreases. The downstream start - up rate may increase slightly. The price is expected to have a short - term repair, but the supply surplus situation remains, and attention should be paid to device maintenance [16]. - Urea: The supply of urea is becoming more abundant. The agricultural and industrial demand is stable, and some reserve demand may be released. The inventory at the enterprise level increases slightly, and the port inventory decreases significantly. The cost support is strong, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The export shipment of US soybeans decreased significantly this crop year, and the sales to China are still zero. The market is waiting for the result of China - US soybean trade negotiations. The soybean price rebounded recently, while the oil and meal prices were weak, leading to a decline in domestic soybean crushing profit [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Domestic soybean oil mills have a large supply of soybeans and high inventory, and maintain a high - level operation. The soybean meal supply is sufficient, but the new trading volume is small. The future of China - US soybean trade will determine the supply gap risk in the first quarter of next year. The increase in soybean prices and the loss of oil mills may limit future soybean procurement. The soybean meal futures may have short - covering, but attention should be paid to trade negotiation dynamics [18]. - Oils: The unexpected increase in palm oil production in October caused short - term adjustment pressure, but the rise in international oilseeds and crude oil prices provided some support. Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains. The consumption of soybean and rapeseed oil is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean and palm oil is expected to be repaired. The vegetable oil inventory is decreasing, and the market has no clear direction for now [19]. - Corn: The corn price in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' intention to build inventory is general. The current price is close to the planting cost, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the temperature drops [19]. - Hogs: At the current low price level, the price difference between fat and lean pigs is widening, and the second - fattening demand is increasing. The pig price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to pork purchase and storage actions [19].