Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash market showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern with limited price fluctuations. The fundamentals remained in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply side changed little, and the overall supply pressure still existed. The demand side was dull, with downstream procurement in a rigid - demand mode and limited new order increments. The market was full of a strong wait - and - see sentiment. - Although the inventory decreased slightly, the absolute level was still at a historical high, and the inventory pressure was still significant. The profit situation continued to be under pressure, and the industry as a whole was still in a loss state with limited cost support. The core market contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand. - In the short term, the market lacked a clear directional driver. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand restricted the upward price space. It was expected that the market would continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction and the recovery strength of downstream demand. - Operational suggestions included shorting at high prices for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread combination for options [40][41]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,600 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.01%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 330,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash production was 409,900 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons compared to the previous week. - The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01% compared to the previous value. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09%, an increase of 1.67% compared to the previous week, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 76.23%, an increase of 0.49% compared to the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.98%, an increase of 0.05% compared to the previous week [9][11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons compared to the previous Monday, with a decline rate of 0.50%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons compared to the previous week. Compared with the previous Thursday, it increased by 1,600 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons compared to the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.6503 million tons, an increase of 51,800 tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 3.14% [14]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 23, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 739,000 tons, an increase of 5.60% compared to the previous week. The overall soda ash shipment rate was 99.78%, an increase of 5.28 percentage points compared to the previous week [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 32.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.70 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. During the week, the cost of raw salt remained stable, while the price of anthracite coal fluctuated upward, increasing the cost. The soda ash price remained weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to decline. - As of October 23, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production process soda ash was - 161 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31.50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. During the week, the cost of raw salt increased slightly, and the price of thermal coal rose significantly, resulting in a significant increase in cost. The soda ash price had no obvious fluctuation and remained weakly stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process decreased significantly [20][23]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of October 23, 2025, the daily output of national floating glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 16th. During the week (October 17 - 23, 2025), the national floating glass production was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week, a decrease of 0.51% compared to the previous year [27]. (2) Floating Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.337 million weight boxes compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 3.64%, and an increase of 16.99% compared to the previous year. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 723 yuan/ton on October 16 to 762 yuan/ton on October 23, an increase of 5.39%. The prices of well - mine salt in different regions (East China, Northeast, North China) remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in different regions also remained unchanged, while the price of floating glass decreased from 1246 yuan/ton to 1187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.74%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass remained unchanged, the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2199 yuan/ton to 2183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73% [38].
纯碱周报：基本面未见起色，价格持续承压-20251027
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-27 01:42