国新国证期货早报-20251027

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - On October 24, 2025, A - share three major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index, coke, and coking coal indices rose, while the prices of some products like iron ore futures fell [1][2][3][4]. - Different factors affected the prices of various futures products. For instance, the supply - demand relationship, policy, and international trade factors influenced the prices of sugar, soybean meal, and other products [5][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On October 24, A - share three major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to 3171.57 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 19742 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3303 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4660.68, a ring - up of 54.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 24, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1781.2, a ring - up of 25.4; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 1261.2 yuan, a ring - up of 16.0. The炼焦煤 price in Linfen Anze market rose 50 yuan/ton on October 23. Steel inventory decreased, and the output of the top 10 coal enterprises increased year - on - year. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coal and coke prices, and the coking coal basis and inter - month positive spreads strengthened [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The consulting company Datagro predicted that the global sugar will have a surplus of 198 million tons in the 2025/26 season, compared with a previous forecast of a shortage of 500 million tons, which put pressure on the market. Affected by the decline of US sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower in the night session on October 24 [5]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher in the night session on October 24. As of October 24, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9898 tons to 163450 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10980 tons to 124020 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 2924 tons to 46772 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2521 tons to 42640 tons. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly last week [6][8]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 24, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The market expected the Sino - US trade talks to improve the bilateral trade environment. The estimated US soybean harvest progress reached 73% as of October 19. The Brazilian soybean crop started well, with most mainstream institutions estimating the new - year output at about 1.78 billion tons. Domestically, on October 24, the M2601 main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%. The domestic soybean imports in the first three quarters reached a record high, and the soybean inventory of oil mills was still high, limiting the rebound space [9]. Live Pigs - On October 24, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2601 main contract closed at 12175 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support. However, the domestic live pig inventory was still at a high level, and the terminal consumption was weak, so the short - term market was in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the price center likely to move up slightly, supported by supply contraction expectations and macro - policy benefits. However, weak demand and uncertain factors may limit the increase [10]. Cotton - On the night of October 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 23 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton was concentrated at 6.2 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The Sino - US - Malaysia trade negotiations made phased progress [10]. Iron Ore - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.58% and a closing price of 771 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, the domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level, and the hot metal output continued to decline from a high level. Short - term iron ore prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Asphalt - On October 24, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 3299 yuan. The refinery production plan in November decreased significantly month - on - month, the inventory continued to decrease, and the demand for rigid - need stocking increased. The recent rise in crude oil prices boosted market sentiment, and short - term asphalt prices were in a volatile trend [11]. Logs - On October 24, the 2601 log contract opened at 830, with a minimum of 826, a maximum of 833.5, and closed at 829, with an increase of 672 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support of the moving average at 827 - 815. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship had no major contradictions, and the market was in a pattern of gradual inventory reduction [11][12]. Steel - The recent macro - level was mixed, with limited incremental information from the "14th Five - Year Plan Press Conference" and a neutral impact on the market. Sino - US high - level economic and trade consultations released some positive signals, but the EU's sanctions on Russia affected some Chinese enterprises, adding uncertainties. The domestic demand recovery momentum was still weak, and the risk of market volatility due to unmet expectations should be警惕 [12]. Alumina - The bauxite port inventory decreased slightly, and the supply tightened, with firm ore prices. The alumina spot price continued to weaken, squeezing smelter profits and increasing the expectation of production cuts, so the domestic alumina supply might gradually decrease. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity and operation remained at a high level, and the demand for alumina might be slightly boosted. Overall, the alumina price might be supported [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina spot price continued to weaken, and the domestic macro - expectation boosted the aluminum price, increasing the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit and production enthusiasm. However, the incremental supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum was limited. The "14th Five - Year Plan" improved domestic consumption expectations, and the downstream start - up rate increased during the traditional peak season, strengthening aluminum consumption and reducing aluminum ingot inventory. However, the inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on downstream demand should be carefully observed [13].